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1. Joe Sixpack April 10, 2026 at 7:07 am

   “The experts consider that Trump and Netanyahu may have a tacit understanding that Israel can get some last whacks in before Israel falls into line. Given that Israel respects no limits one has to wonder if and why Trump would go along with that.”

   I refuse to believe that in April of 2026 anyone can be this stupid…to somehow still fail to comprehend that Trump is totally controlled by Netanyahu via the Epstein pedo blackmail project.
   1. Jason Boxman April 10, 2026 at 9:47 am

      Trump’s hatred of Iran is longstanding, though. American elites have an irrational seething rage against the country.
      1. XXYY April 10, 2026 at 11:47 am

         It is exceeding striking and strange. I think of Iran as being a fairly innocuous country on the world stage, especially if you were to take away many decades of virulent Western media propaganda. But Iran seems to be the constant, everlasting target of hatred from generations of US elites. Seems like there are three possible sources at least:

         (o) Religious (?).
         (o) Resources (oil esp.)
         (o) General campaign of attacking every country on the border of Russia.

         None of these seem overwhelmingly compelling. Other possibilities are rumored ancestral feuds between family dynasties going back to the Middle Ages or something like that. I don’t like to think of these type of things as driving present day world events, but I’m not coming up with much else.

         It would be nice to hear someone who actually knows something comment on the basis for our Iranian hatred.
         1. juno mas April 10, 2026 at 1:27 pm

            US hates Iran for its geolocation, oil reserves, and love for Israel (a proxy).
         2. Psalamanazar April 10, 2026 at 1:31 pm

            I don’t claim actually to know much, but wonder whether Americans, many of whom have a very strange, one might almost say, novel, form of religion, if the Guardian’s account of what Hegseth is into is right, have something amounting to an envy of the old world set up in places like Teheran and the Vatican.
         3. Laughingsong April 10, 2026 at 1:33 pm

            One through-line I have noticed during my lifetime is that the West in general, and the US in particular, go bonkers when any nation nationalizes its resources to regain control from western corporations.

            I honestly believe that the West would have been just fine with the Ayatollah back in 1979 had the new regime not done that.

            They hated Chavez for the same reason.
            1. Michaelmas April 10, 2026 at 4:00 pm

               Putin was our man in Moscow (Sir Richard Dearlove, MI6) and a man we can do business with (George W Bush) till 2003 when oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky tried to sell Yukos corp’s 20 percent of Russian oil to American oil companies in perpetuity and Putin threw him in prison and stopped the deal.

               And right then was when Putin became the Great Satan and Stalin reborn, and we got the “We have always been at war with Oceania” line from the West

               So, yes.
               1. Laughingsong April 10, 2026 at 4:18 pm

                  Ah, thanks! I never linked that event to Putin suddenly being in the dog house around then.
            2. Alan Sutton April 10, 2026 at 5:19 pm

               And Gadaffi.
            3. hk April 10, 2026 at 6:08 pm

               Personally, I think we (the US) should try nationalizing key industries sometimes.
               1. Oregon Lawhobbit April 10, 2026 at 6:34 pm

                  Then allow the oligarchs to bid to “buy them back.”

                  Lather, rinse, repeat as necessary.
         4. Teddy April 10, 2026 at 5:06 pm

            some answers can be found here-
            https://unbekoming.substack.com/p/which-path-to-persia?
            https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/iran-war-to-the-death?
         5. jrkrideau April 10, 2026 at 8:57 pm

            Both Cuba and Iran hurt the USA amour propre. Their actions are unforgivable.

            It sounds stupid but it is the only thing that seems to account for the irrational hatred of these countries by the US elites. When you are lords of the Earth having someone throw a cream pie in your face during prime time cannot be forgiven.
      2. Dr. John Carpenter April 10, 2026 at 1:15 pm

         Indeed. Bibi may have Trump by the short hairs, but he’s not doing anything he didn’t want to do anyway.
      3. Carla April 10, 2026 at 4:35 pm

         American “elites” have just one religion: money. As an ancient civilization, Iran and its people know there’s more to life than $$$, and it drives our “leaders” absolutely bonkers. l
   2. shinola April 10, 2026 at 1:42 pm

      Trump is Bibi’s bitch.
   3. david April 11, 2026 at 2:16 am

      good balanced reporting about Iranianwarcrimes against Saudi Arabian civilian infrastructure.
      keep up the good work!
2. Pensions Guy April 10, 2026 at 7:17 am

   To add to all the other aircraft we have lost, now our most expensive aircraft went down. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/mq-4c-triton-us-most-expensive-drone-disappears-over-strait-of-hormuz-iran-war-iran-us-war-us-iran-ceasefire-11337213
   We have about 20 of these aircraft.
   And this was during the supposed ceasefire.
   There are reports that it was flying at 52,000 feet. https://x.com/imetatronink/status/2042346692696293617 If it was shot down at that altitude, that is serious air defense capability.
   This also seems to add to the idea that the additional buildup is not for show.
   1. Richard April 10, 2026 at 7:54 am

      I personally doubt it was shot down as someone changed its squawk to 7700 which likely means some kind of technical fault from which it could not recover so the ground operator followed procedures and declared an emergency to warn/clear other traffic. Its not impossible that was done as a result of a missile interception but I think it is unlikely.

      Apparently there are 48 in service as of 2024.
      1. Samuel Conner April 10, 2026 at 8:10 am

         The War Zone is reporting that the original “squawk” may have been a code indicating loss of communication with ground controllers.

         I’m tempted to wonder whether the Iranians might be interfering electronically. There is a report some years ago of a US drone “commandeered” electronically and landed in Iran.

         I feel a bit uneasy in contemplation of electronic warfare. That could wreak a lot of havoc if employed against civilian infrastructure.
         1. Jerren April 10, 2026 at 12:45 pm

            I had friends (two brothers) who were deployed in the Iraq occupation. They were told to regard eyes-in-the-sky as being usable by both sides.

            This was around the time that Iran landed a US drone.
   2. ThirtyOne April 10, 2026 at 10:43 am

      Iran has quite a history re drones.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Iranian_shoot-down_of_American_drone
3. upstater April 10, 2026 at 7:34 am

   The deep state stenographer occasionally reveal atrocities. Plenty of photos. In the article many bombings of schools and hospitals are qualified as being near “legitimate” targets. Poor kids and hospital patients! It strains credulity that USrael isn’t actually targeting civilians in its terror campaign.

   Iran’s Schools and Hospitals in Ruins From U.S.-Israeli Strikes NYT

   The Iranian Red Crescent Society, the country’s primary humanitarian relief organization, said on April 2 that at least 763 schools and 316 health care facilities had been damaged or destroyed in the war.
   1. Acacia April 10, 2026 at 8:02 pm

      Bombing schools and hospitals is just how they roll. See Gaza.

      Why would the US/Israel campaign against Iran be any different?
4. les online April 10, 2026 at 7:41 am

   Trump’s posts are written by Biden’s Auto-pen ?
   Certainly not by Trump – they’re not only coherent. they’re detailed
   and Trump allegedly gives no stock to ‘details’…
   1. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 8:24 am

      Wow. That would be a good way to get Trump’s goat. Just have the Democrats publish an official portrait of Donald Trump – and show only an auto-pen. He would go ballistic.
5. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 7:54 am

   ‘The Cradle
   @TheCradleMedia
   Despite western reports, most media say Iranian delegation has not yet arrived in Islamabad
   A consensus has formed among major regional outlets, including Fars, Tasnim, and Mehr, that Iran has not sent a delegation to Islamabad for the proposed ceasefire talks.
   These state-aligned agencies, along with correspondents from Al Mayadeen and Al Jazeera, have confirmed that no delegation has arrived and clarified that Tehran remains firm on its condition: no negotiations will take place while Israeli attacks continue on Lebanon.’

   Trump has told Israel that they can keep on attacking Lebanon – as long as they make it low-key attacks. But what happens if Vance, Witkoff and Kushner arrive in Pakistan and are left spinning their wheels as the Iranian won’t turn up until all attacks cease? They will look like fools and know that Iran will have them over a barrel. I thought it a massive concession that Iran ever agreed to see Witkoff and Kushner ever again.
   1. ambrit April 10, 2026 at 9:41 am

      I’m wondering if this is a set up for a Machiavellian false flag attack. “Terrorists” attack the American negotiating team in Islamabad. It would serve several purposes. First, it would “remove” ‘inconvenient’ persons, especially the Vice President. Second, it would supply a causus belli for America. Third, it would be a jab at China through one of its “allies,” Pakistan. Fourth, it would cement the “menage” between Israel and America.
      This series of events underscores the maxim that: “One cannot be too cynical.”
      Stay safe.
      1. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 9:50 am

         I’ll admit that I had hoped the ceasefire talks would be held in Baghdad instead, so I could type something like:

         ‘Jared Kushner’s Iraq Concert’

         Cheap Trick – Live on Don Kirshner’s Rock Concert – November 10, 1977

         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YF1WxThaJPg&list=RDYF1WxThaJPg
   2. ISL April 10, 2026 at 10:07 am

      PressTV reports that Trump pressured Israel (successfully) not to attack anymore due to Iranian pressure (not sending a delegation). I can’t access it now, but got the link from my browsing history:

      https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/04/10/766596/iran-forced-israel-halt-attacks-beirut-threatening-withdraw-from-talks-source

      I have found the best access in the middle of the night, and if I leave the window open, I can read articles in the morning, though if I close the window during the day, it’s generally down. Strange kind of cyberwar.
      1. JohnH April 10, 2026 at 10:46 am

         “Trump pressured Israel (successfully)” If true, that’s outstanding.

         That has to be THE critical sign that Trump is serious. Without a willingness and ability to dictate terms to Israel, nothing can be done and negotiation is futile. I’m sure Iran will continue testing Trump to make sure Israel heels…
   3. thoughtfulperson April 10, 2026 at 11:05 am

      I was thinking it would be be a good one if Iran sent a few top businessmen (perhaps in real estate?) to be the negotiators.
      1. Revenant April 10, 2026 at 4:27 pm

         And the rabbi from the synagogue Israel bombed for chutzpah and some carpet sellers and bazaaris for negotiating stamina and cups of sweet tea.

         I wonder if Trump could be bought off with island to develop, as long as it was bigger than Gaza? They could offer him Bahrain!
6. JohnH April 10, 2026 at 8:01 am

   It’s fascinating to watch Iran play the US-Israeli game back at them–comply with demands, else…

   So far, it seems that Iran has forced Israel to dial it back in Lebanon, else Iran won’t attend negotiations, “open” the Strait, and refrain from bombing Gulf economic targets.

   But Iran plays the game differently…they just state their demands. By contrast, Israeli demands are always a moving target. An adversary willing to negotiate simply means that Israel senses weakness and just adds more unacceptable conditions. I’d be surprised if Iran adds more. The list seems pretty comprehensive.

   It’s also fascinating to watch the US making a dash against a fairly imminent deadline–global economic disaster. Does Trump really think he can fully open the Strait before that happens? Iran has time on its side. It need be in no hurry to negotiate as the US brings more of its military assets into range of Iranian missiles and drone. And I doubt that it will accept any US offers not guaranteed or not preceded by concrete confidence building measures, like return of frozen assets.
   1. Carolinian April 10, 2026 at 9:22 am

      It has always been pointed out that Israel demands the “right to exist” while refusing to define its own borders. It’s almost as though they are demanding acceptance of a narrative’s right to exist more than a nation.

      Perhaps their confidence that Iran would topple with a little push stems from a belief that it too is a mere narrative with little substance. I can’t claim to know much about Iran but it doesn’t look as though that is working out too well. Perhaps as some have pointed out religion does have a lot to do with this. The Iranians are majority sincere in their faith whereas Israel was founded by non believers willing to use religion to advance their settler cause. In a Napolitano talk Douglas Macgregor says this cohesiveness in more tribal groups is why a military (ours) designed to topple banana republics fails against country’s like Vietnam fighting their own existential fight.

      And now existentially threatened Iran is fighting back by making the conflict existential for the world itself. How long before the world figures this out?
      1. dearieme April 10, 2026 at 9:52 am

         The Confederacy had a right to exist. Much good it did it.
         And the USSR, and Babylonia, and Sumer; even the Kingdom of Hawaii …

         Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!
         1. Carolinian April 10, 2026 at 10:50 am

            Those borders were fuzzy too. Lincoln needed an attack on the Federal property of Fort Sumter for the war to kick off.
   2. JohnH April 10, 2026 at 10:37 am

      I wonder about the bombing of Russian oil loading facilities. Why does somebody really, really want an oil shortage and really, realy high oil prices? It’s just too coincident with the effective closure of the Strait to be accidental.
      1. thoughtfulperson April 10, 2026 at 11:10 am

         I’ve noticed this a well. I wonder if the EU and NATO think they are in more than a proxy war with Russia? If they want WW3, blowing up ships around the world seems a good way to get the ball rolling.
      2. shawnuff April 10, 2026 at 12:56 pm

         A theory.

         We were approaching the point where oil becomes more expensive to produce than it can be sold for. Civilization runs on oil and money. How do you get firms to keep production up? Restrict supply to push the price up. That, or you find some way to incentivize economic activity other than money. The latter may still come, but is it surprising somebody wants to squeeze maximum mileage out of option A before trying B? The total surveillance and control infra isn’t all in place yet.
   3. JohnH April 10, 2026 at 1:50 pm

      Bingo!!! As I said: “Iran demands Lebanon ceasefire, unfreezing of assets before US peace talks” [Reuters headline.]

      Lebanon ceasefire would demonstrate US willingness and ability to restrain Israel.

      Unfreezing Iranian assets would demonstrate US seriousness in negotiations (beyond promises.)

      I’ll add another condition: Acceptance of an Iranian invitation to John Ratcliffe, JD Vance, and David Barnea to vacation with their families in Tehran for the duration of negotiations in Islamabad, all expenses paid, luxury accommodations guaranteed. Their presence in Tehran would serve as an assurance that neither the US nor Israel would neither kill the Iranian negotiators nor other important Iranian officials or scientists.

      With the clock ticking on the global economy and the midterms, wouldn’t these conditions represent offers that Trump cannot refuse? I mean, if the US and Israel continue their aggressive behavior, will there be anything left to ship out of the Persian Gulf once the US “liberates” it?
7. Yves Smith Post authorApril 10, 2026 at 8:06 am

   All done! Please refresh the page and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this comment.
   1. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 8:17 am

      Many thanks for these daily Iran war updates which must take up a big chunk of your time. Pretty sure that you never thought that it would be for only a few days and then would be finito like Trump did.
      1. .Tom April 10, 2026 at 8:21 am

         Hear hear. Also here.
8. Louis Fyne April 10, 2026 at 8:07 am

   >>>Russia is dumping sanctioned LNG into Asia at a 40% discount.

   until that guy provides a cite, i’m assuming that it’s referring to the ‘Power of Siberia’ long-term contracts that were signed pre-war.
   1. Samuel Conner April 10, 2026 at 8:23 am

      I don’t think LNG can be shipped over long distances via pipeline — too much surface area and thermal load. Power of Siberia 2 is pressurized but still gaseous state natural gas.
      1. Yves Smith Post authorApril 10, 2026 at 8:40 am

         Correct. A lot of extra cost in turning gas into LNG, far more than in sending it via pipeline. Also takes other expensive and specialized handling (LNG tankers, port facilities).
   2. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 8:43 am

      It’s a weird tweet anyway. The text ends with “… show more”, but nothing happens when I click on “show more”. Could be my unfamiliarity with X …
      1. paul April 10, 2026 at 9:15 am

         The following tweet is the continuation…
         1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 9:52 am

            I only see one. I guess that’s because I’m not signed up?
            1. Pearl Rangefinder April 10, 2026 at 2:57 pm

               Correct, you unfortunately have to be signed in to see full tweet threads. Your other option is to use a nitter instance to get around that limitation:

               nitter.net

               xcancel.com

               nitter.poast.org

               To use one of those, just delete the “x.com” part of the tweet URL you want to see and replace it with one of the above. So for example, to be able to read the LNG tweet using xcancel it would look like so:

               https://xcancel.com/FrankCurzio/status/2042204279449190768

               They don’t always work 100% of the time but it’s been decently reliable for me.
               1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 3:19 pm

                  Thanks. I’m saving your advice, though I doubt I’ll use it a lot. Other sources, like NC, usually keep me up to date enough, without getting me too sucked into X-by-proxy. And now I know what this nitter I keep coming across is.
                  1. Pearl Rangefinder April 10, 2026 at 3:41 pm

                     It’s definitely one hell of a rabbit hole hahaha. Genuinely useful for breaking news, although it’s slowly been going down the tubes for the past few years.
      2. Rick April 10, 2026 at 9:16 am

         I assume putting a text “show more” in the body of a tweet is a new ruse to get more clicks. A genuine continuation is a link which is displayed in a different color. This just started showing up in the last month or so.
         1. Yves Smith Post authorApril 10, 2026 at 9:42 am

            Sorry, that “show more” has been around for a VERY long time.

            It is because Twitter has hard limits on the # of characters in a tweet.

            The choices of a tweet author if he needs more space are:

            1. Multiple linked tweets (I have seen as many as >20) OR

            2 “Show more” in one long tweet.

            The length limits result in more clicks regardless.

            I find “show more” to be less of a PITA than clicking through to see many linked tweets.

            And it isn’t as if Twitter is making adequate money: https://europeanbusinessmagazine.com/business/business-x-revenue-44-billion-bet/
            1. turtle April 10, 2026 at 3:58 pm

               I think what Rick was pointing at is that the “show more” on this particular tweet wasn’t clickable to expand the post and read the rest of it, like it usually is with other tweets. I got the same result. Even looking at the tweet on x.com, the show more is just plain text and not clickable. Perhaps it’s a glitch with twitter.
            2. Oregon Lawhobbit April 10, 2026 at 6:46 pm

               1. Multiple linked tweets (I have seen as many as >20)

               That is some serious twittilation!!!!

               I don’t think I’ve ever seen double digits – 1/9 is the highest I can remember. Now I feel very inadequate in my twittishness.
      3. vidimi April 10, 2026 at 9:32 am

         it’s because it’s a copy pasta
         1. turtle April 10, 2026 at 3:59 pm

            Ah, yes, that makes the most sense!
   3. Polar Socialist April 10, 2026 at 11:37 am

      I think it’s from Irina Slav at OilPrice.com yesterday quoting Bloomberg.
9. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 8:14 am

   ‘Mr. Whale
   @CryptoWhale
   🇺🇸🇨🇳 | Trump reportedly demanded that China halt all trade relations with Spain. In response, China moved to suspend exports of agricultural fertilizers to the United States. According to reports, Donald Trump made this demand as a reaction to Spain’s recent stance toward the U.S.
   Beijing’s response was swift and decisive. China’s president announced a suspension of fertilizer exports to the United States – something that could have major consequences, as American agriculture heavily depends on these supplies.’

   If Trump actually demanded this of China and was treating it like a vassal state, no wonder it blew up in his face. Lots of very harsh comments below that tweet about the stupidity of this-

   https://xcancel.com/CryptoWhale/status/2042220388210405607

   Not that long ago, Netanyahu gifted a gold-plated pager to Trump which I took as a veiled threat. When Trump finally goes to see Xi in China, perhaps Xi can gift Trump a gold-plated anvil.
   1. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 8:26 am

      Xi: I wouldn’t do that if I was you, and here’s a toast to your health.
   2. ChrisFromGA April 10, 2026 at 8:34 am

      This is probably the best way to train Taco … like a small child, he only responds to consequences.

      Every time he makes an outrageous demand, Xi ought to cut off another export. This time it was fertilizer, next time, rare erfs.
      1. Jason Boxman April 10, 2026 at 9:50 am

         Will it though? He eats well. The rest of us, subsequent to this, might eat even less well then before. Trump cares not, though.
         1. ChrisFromGA April 10, 2026 at 10:57 am

            Point taken.

            If China could cut off the supply of Big Macs and “super size” sodas, that might work better.
         2. Dr. John Carpenter April 10, 2026 at 1:18 pm

            If you can call a steady diet of McDonalds and diet Coke eating well.
   3. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 8:50 am

      A golden wig? Or nappy?
   4. Basil Pesto April 10, 2026 at 9:10 am

      According to what reports? Not to cast aspersions on… @CryptoWhale, of X the Everything app, but I could find none. Only the reports from last month that China had begun restricting fertiliser exports across the board. That had absolutely nothing to do with US-Spain or China-Spain relations.
   5. Clankenfoot April 10, 2026 at 10:04 am

      One of the more challenging recurring questions in the Trump Epoch is “Is this ~thing du jour~ too stupid to be real?”, but…

      Trump demands China halt trade relations with Spain?
      1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 12:12 pm

         Only a little while before he demands that the sun and moon prostrate themselves before him.
         1. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 12:14 pm

            I heard Trump is in negotiations with the tide, too.
            1. Oregon Lawhobbit April 10, 2026 at 6:50 pm

               Dunno – I suspect that with the way it goes in and out and rises and falls and brings in all sorts of weird stuff to the shore that the tide is already a card-carrying member of Team Trump.
            2. Randall Flagg April 10, 2026 at 7:24 pm

               Halley’s Comet too on its next pass by.
10. Tom Stone April 10, 2026 at 8:18 am

    I don’t see how anyone can contend that Trump is mentally competent at this point, the fact that nothing is being done about it speaks volumes about how corrupt the USA has become.
    1. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 8:29 am

       You could already see that with the fact that out of 335,000,000 Americans, the only choices that were given to them to choose their President from were old, senile Joe Biden, the incoherent Kamala Harris and the unstable narcissist Donald Trump. If that is not a rigged deck, then I do not know what is.
       1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 8:52 am

          Not long before that, they had Trump or Clinton – what a choice.
       2. John Wright April 10, 2026 at 9:35 am

          But the USA could work with an incompetent President, if they were backed up by a competent staff.

          The USA’s political rot is very deep, encompassing the academic schools of government, the think tanks, the lobbyists, the MIC, the chicken hawks, the religious leaders, the media and the entertainment industry.

          Trump, through sheer arrogance and ignorance, could, unintentionally, be a force for a more equitable world.
          1. Rolf April 11, 2026 at 8:34 am

             To piggyback on your comment re academia, both Michael Hudson and Steve Keen regularly mention that US schools of business and economics continue to graduate financial wizards with what they term an essentially fictional understanding of how real political economies and markets work. This would seem to ensure that the general population also succumbs to convenient myths (“goverment finance is like a household”) that sustain policies of austerity (to which the MIC is of course exempt). Do current practioners of government policy really understand fiat economies, taxes, finance, debt? History? Geography?

             I recall Yves also mentioning that when she was at Harvard (80s or early 90s?), a not insignificant fraction of students pursuing MBAs at HBS came from science and engineering backgrounds — the point being that these would be people with an appreciation of how the real world works, its limits, resources, history, etc. — as opposed to finance exclusively. I hope I am not misquoting her on this point.

             Dr. Hudson also regularly skewers current economists as lacking any understanding of economic history. Dr. Keen often takes pains to illustrate graphically how current econ texts cling to models of market behavior that fail to describe, never mind predict, real world events.

             In US government the rot at the top is certainly complete, and probably those with half a brain and conscience have seen the graffiti and left. I don’t know exactly when things really started to go south, but the calibre and ethics of people in current positions of great power in the US and Europe is comical. And FP expertise is gone. This is immediately apparent when one compares the insights and depth of understanding of former diplomats such as Chas Freeman and Alastair Crooke with their counterparts today.

             The US needs to pursue regime change — at home.
       3. Paul Jurczak April 10, 2026 at 3:56 pm

          Yes, the deck is rigged, but there were choices outside of the Uniparty in all elections. Do you think Jill Stein would do worse than Trump or Harris managing this war? Unfortunately, majority of U.S. voters suffer from battered woman syndrome and they will keep voting for the Uniparty, irrationally hoping for change.
    2. rob April 10, 2026 at 8:52 am

       trumps mental state is in full meltdown mode for everyone to see. It isn’t like he was EVER the brightest bulb in the box, or the sharpest knife in the drawer; but now he is in full blown implosion mode.
       How telling in that tweet of his that he didn’t remember MTG /marjorie taylor GREEN”S name was Green… not BROWN… He knew it was a color… but he picked the wrong one….

       And again…. what the hell is wrong with all the people who are going along with the farce?
       1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 10:28 am

          I think he could recall her name:

          Lightweight Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Brown (Green grass turns Brown when it begins to ROT!), betrayed the entire Republican Party when she turned Left, performed poorly on the pathetic View, and became the RINO that we all know she always was. Just another Fake politician, no different than Rand Paul Jr. (Thomas Massie), who got caught being a full fledged Republican In Name Only (RINO)! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
          https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115553994466678093
          1. Psalamanazar April 10, 2026 at 1:41 pm

             The words ‘became the Rino …she always was’ are not indicative of clear thinking.
             1. ChrisFromGA April 10, 2026 at 2:47 pm

                Good catch … hard to “become” something you “always” were.

                Something tells me that logic and reason were never Taco’s strong suit in school. Now that his brain is turning into vanilla pudding, well, we probably ought to grade on a curve.

                As an aside, green grass can also turn brown when it goes dormant. I live in the south and was amazed when I first moved here to see all the brown lawns in December. It seems to happen with Bermuda and Zoysia grass the most.
                1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 3:22 pm

                   He wasn’t talking about marijuana?
       2. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 10:31 am

          Welcome to…

          ‘The Farce Side’
       3. jp April 10, 2026 at 4:36 pm

          I think it was a jibe to indicate that he thinks she is worth no more than faeces.
    3. pjay April 10, 2026 at 9:31 am

       “… the fact that nothing is being done about it speaks volumes …”

       Indeed. There is a very relevant article posted by Conor in Links today on the Democrat’s “opposition” to “Trump’s War”: “The ‘Opposition Party’ Has Done Nothing to Stop the Iran War and Much to Goad Trump Into Continuing It”

       Regard the first part of your comment, Trump is certainly dangerously unstable. But I think it is important, crucial in fact, to understand that taking out Iran was not just the twisted desire of our deranged (and/or blackmailed?) President. As the rest of your comment indicates, this has long been a major Blob goal, though there have been some intra-elite disagreements on tactics. But in typical fashion Trump has acted too openly and recklessly while providing insufficient ideological cover, therefore threatening to bring the whole thing down. It’s not much consolation, but the blatant illegal aggression combined with his Super Villain twitter statements have at least opened this project up to public scrutiny and criticism. That’s what the “opposition” by CIA Democrats and neocons is really all about.
       1. JohnH April 10, 2026 at 10:10 am

          Democratic “opposition” is just a dust off of 2004 Iraq talking points. John Kerry’s “opposition” consisted merely of criticizing the WAY the war was being fought, not of the war per se.

          In 2006, Democrats winning back of the House was widely considered to be a mandate by voters to end the Iraq war. Pelosi’s response was to ignore that mandate, even threatening to remove the chairman of the House Budget committee if he dared withhold funding. She preferred to save the war as an issue to saddle Republicans with for the 2008 election.

          IMO if Democrats were in power, I can’t help but believe that they would have engaged in a “kinder, gentler”, war using more misleading, dignified language. Can you imagine Kamala standing up to Netanyahu and the Israel lobby? No way!
          1. Dr. John Carpenter April 10, 2026 at 11:00 am

             Speaking of Pelosi, anyone heard any more about all that powder she was keeping dry back then? I assume it’s all been looted and pillaged because now would sure be a good time to think about using it.
       2. Lee April 10, 2026 at 11:05 am

          “IIt’s not much consolation, but the blatant illegal aggression combined with his Super Villain twitter statements have at least opened this project up to public scrutiny and criticism. That’s what the “opposition” by CIA Democrats and neocons is really all about.”

          As Lambert on a number of occasions noted, the Trump presidency would be “clarifying”.
    4. Oregon Lawhobbit April 10, 2026 at 6:55 pm

       Is anyone even actually contending it? It seems that the best that is on offer is just a “no contention one way or t’other.” I suppose I could google for “Trump is fully on board mentally and is just playing some serious 5D chess with his opponents’ minds,” but I doubt there will be much of a return.

       Does the White House have a nice quiet attic he could be gently guided into for the next threeish years? Surely the US couldn’t be any worse off with nobody in the Oval Office than with him there….
11. Revenant April 10, 2026 at 8:23 am

    Re “UK to supply interceptor missiles”:

    Hmm. There’s no there there!

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-start-up-to-supply-interceptor-missiles-to-uk-military-and-gulf-partners

    It’s a new missile, developed by a start-up, will be supplied in a first batch over the next six months with more to follow and the whole deal has been announced while still “subject to contract ” (LOL! HMG must be desparate to appear to be doing its bit for the Empire – I’d have them over a barrel if I were the start-up, having gone to press on this without signing the contract…).

    I would hardly call this a supply contract, of a proven armament from existing UK stocks. It’s an MoD field testing contract, rebadged as help for GCC allies.

    Also, the missile has a 30km range and travels at 700kph. It is for intercepting shahed drones – it’s hardly pushing the envelope technically. I expect the start-up’s roadmap includes manoeuverable hypersonic missiles in a later phase, subject to funding….
12. What? No! April 10, 2026 at 8:26 am

    The Melania thing. So out of nowhere, the Whitehouse felt the need to get out in front of Epstein again, right in the middle of pushing hard on Israel to comply.

    Or not.

    In lieu of answers, I’d settle for a live public broadcast of the ceasefire negotiations.
    1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 8:58 am

       She’s none too fond of her husband (his money’s another matter), and I seem to remember her saying or doing something relatively humane not so long ago. Might she be thinking of running for president?
       1. ambrit April 10, 2026 at 9:54 am

          Team her up with Michelle Obama and Americans can then proudly say” “America has two mommies.”
       2. jsn April 10, 2026 at 11:16 am

          Melania’s melody.
          1. Jeff H April 10, 2026 at 2:57 pm

             Nice link, it led me to an autoplay link that was stacked with some of my favorites. Especially Julia Mestri – Sou Fera and Incognito. We all need to decompress from the endless madness that is our world.
          2. Revenant April 10, 2026 at 4:38 pm

             It’s wonderful to hear that again.

             When I went on a school trip to Cambridge to check out the different colleges, we stayed in Jesus (it was the Long Vac, the student rooms were empty) and we all got drunk on cheap vodka and played strip poker (luckily the sixty firm was mixed!) listening to Nirvana on a walkman in a metal waste-paper bin as an ersatz amplifier.

             We then wandered around the extensive College grounds absolutely trollied in the dark and ran into its famous sculpture lawn, specifically the piece of a ring of parking meters that played All I want is Money on a movement sensor when you stepped inside the circle! Freaked and then tickled the life out of us.
    2. Bugs April 10, 2026 at 10:12 am

       It’s worth reading the NYT story on it. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/us/politics/melania-trump-jeffrey-epstein.html

       The last line is awesome. And then she turned on her stiletto heels and stalked out as the dazed reporters started shouting after her: “Why now!? Why now!?”

       Unbelievable. From the Pope threats to this. A friend asked me: “when does this cross the line into just satanism?”
       1. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 10:16 am

          Melania is Slav to fashion~

          It had a very…

          ‘Let them eat take’ feel to it.
          1. Pearl Rangefinder April 10, 2026 at 2:35 pm

             Can’t be Slovenly as a tip-top fashionista.
13. Socal Rhino April 10, 2026 at 8:39 am

    Pape’s Escalation Trap is looking pretty on point. I’m old enough to remember Reagan withdrawing troops from Lebanon after the 1983 bombing of a barracks in Beirut. Reagan had his issues but there were competent people around him.
14. Pearl Rangefinder April 10, 2026 at 8:45 am

    Rafe Britton runs a lubrication consulting business and the youtube channel Lubrication Explained, and he posted a video yesterday on the oncoming lubricant supply shortages: No Oil, No Business: How to Prepare for the Biggest Lubricant Supply Disruption in History

    Ray explains how recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran’s retaliation, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have created a historic oil-market disruption that threatens lubricant availability—not just prices—across industries. He breaks down impacts on base oils (especially Iranian Group I, plus knock-on demand shocks in Group II and Middle East exposure in Group III/GTL), synthetics tied to petrochemical feedstocks, and additives constrained by sulfur and naphtha cracking (affecting ZDDP, EP additives, detergents, and more), plus packaging risks from reduced ethylene/HDPE. He outlines expected timing: shortages likely emerging May–June with genuine finished-lube shortages by July–August if disruption persists, and warns of a 2–4 month recovery tail even after resolution. Finally, he gives mitigation steps: audit critical inventory/usage, extend drains via oil analysis and contamination control, consolidate SKUs, communicate and qualify alternates early, pre-purchase strategically, plan substitutes, and explore sulfur-free technologies.

    00:00 Why Lubricants Matter
    00:20 Ceasefire Update
    00:52 Crisis Overview
    01:31 Strait Closure Fallout
    03:11 Base Oils Breakdown
    04:34 Group Three and GTL Risks
    06:40 Synthetics Not Immune
    07:42 Additives and Sulfur Shock
    10:59 Naphtha Cracking and Packaging
    12:36 When Shortages Hit
    16:22 From Price to Availability
    17:09 Action Plan for Sites
    18:43 Extend Oil Life
    21:11 Consolidate and Coordinate
    22:55 Prebuy and Plan B
    23:47 Creative Alternatives
    24:34 Final Warning and Wrap

    The SUlfur shock on the lubricant additives supply is something I hadn’t heard of that he brings up here; basically, most of the anti-wear additives that go into lubricants either use sulfur themselves or are made via chemical reactions with sulfur compounds. So the sulfur shortages are likely going to affect lubricant additives production, on top of the base oil shortages.

    Anyway, to the lube geeks I saw here the other day, “”enjoy””!
    1. Louis Fyne April 10, 2026 at 9:29 am

       it’ll probably be like Covid TP…. you’ll be able to get something for the standard car. if you have niche needs or a favorite brand, you might have to wait a while
    2. Louis Fyne April 10, 2026 at 9:38 am

       for that extended oil life. for a normal commuter, like a typical reader here… if you drive in stop/go traffic, only in 10-15 min. trips, you (perhaps unintuitively) have the toughest job for motor oil.

       don’t be penny-wise, pound foolish by extending oil changes too far. if one is really worrried about shortages, go buy a jug or 2 per car (good, quality oil for normal drivers is available for <$25 per jug at the USA big box). I got 1.5 years-worth of my favorite brand cuz I have oil and filter OCD, lol
       1. Pearl Rangefinder April 10, 2026 at 10:52 am

          Ray’s videos are targeted more towards industry people than your typical consumer user, and your average engine oil is going to be a lot more fungible product than e.g.. some specialized gear oil that your multi-million dollar piece of industrial machinery absolutely needs to operate, ohh and it takes 29 gallons of it, and it has some exacting OEM certification that nothing else uses. That is potentially a really big problem for industry. Your average engine oil on the other hand is pretty easy to replace with something else, you can even go up a grade or two without any issues in warmer weather. So something like a 0W-20 oil (which needs those synthetic Group 3 and 4 base oils to make) could be easily substituted for a 5W-30 or 15W-40 oil instead without any issues above 0 celsius. Hell I’ve even run super thick 20W-50 in my old Honda without any issues in the summer. The only downside is (imperceptibly) marginally worse fuel economy.

          for that extended oil life. for a normal commuter, like a typical reader here… if you drive in stop/go traffic, only in 10-15 min. trips, you (perhaps unintuitively) have the toughest job for motor oil.

          True! and rather unintuitive at first, but short trips where the engine and engine oil never have a chance to come up to operating temperatures (when the by-products of combustion can be boiled out of the oil) are the hardest on engine oils and require more frequent changes, while long highway drives are super easy on the oil. This was something that Shirley Schwartz (affectionately known as “Sister Sludge”), a scientist and engineer who was one of the principal architects of General Motors oil life monitoring system, noted; she had a fool-proof way to make any oil out there fail within 1 000 miles. Her secret? All she had to do was put it into her grandmothers car. Her grandmother would drive every morning from her home 1 mile to Mass and back, and in the afternoon she would drive 1 mile to the grocery store and back home.

          Shirley Schwartz obituary for those interested (she was a very interesting and accomplished woman): Love Letters to the Lubrication Engineers

          Shirley’s honors and accomplishments would fill a book in their own right. She served on the STLE Board of Directors, chaired the STLE Wear Technical Committee, chaired the STLE Detroit Section and received both the STLE P.M. Ku Award for outstanding and selfless achievements for the Society and the Wilbur Deutsch Memorial Award for the outstanding paper written on the practical aspects of lubrication. She was affectionately known as “Sister Sludge” because she was a world famous expert on engine oil, and is generally acknowledged as the “mother” of the oil life monitor found in most GM vehicles, which is responsible for not having to change oil nearly as often as we did previously or, conversely, not ruining your engine if you don’t change often enough. She was the holder of over 20 patents and wrote 173 published technical papers and essays. She was inducted into the Michigan Women’s Hall of Fame in 1996 for her accomplishments in the field of chemistry and was elected to the National Academy of Engineering in 2000 “for contributions to lubrication engineering and for enriching the technical community through freelance writing.”
    3. Cetzer April 10, 2026 at 9:41 am

       And another round of Good News: Without lube Hollywood will be able to make good horror films again – With creaking doors, damsels in distress emitting glass bursting screams and casket lids, that can only get opened by real strong men filled to the brim with steroids¹, their hands covered with talcum powder (the antidote to lube).

       ¹They wouldn’t short-supply-chain them, would they?
    4. Alphonse April 10, 2026 at 1:33 pm

       A lube shortage. Truly a metaphor for our time.

       “Our democracy” is the elites’ theory that they know what the common people deserve and make sure to give it to them good and hard.
15. AG April 10, 2026 at 8:48 am

    re: Joe Kent

    I have watched only limited amount of Joe Kent interviews but so far I have doubts about the substance of his geopolitical statements.

    His genuine expertise to me seems to be mostly confined to how to use force against what he calls terrorist groups. A rather limited mind. But correct me if I am wrong.

    There is an interview Michael Tracey did with Kent:

    Interview: Former Counterterrorism Official Joe Kent
    “Today’s News” — well, Michael Tracey — talks to the ubiquitous former director of the National Counterterrorism Center
    April 9th
    75 min.
    https://www.racket.news/p/interview-former-counterterrorism

    I stopped after a while because Kent seemed to just be droning on stuff that seemed obvious from his POV. I´ll have to try again.

    In the introductory remarks by Taibbi who could not participate Taibbi mentions that when it came to Epstein Kent too was informing himself via internet commentary additionally to his own access to documents. This is making it difficult to judge Kent´s comments on Epstein – what is open source what is confidential? What is real what is projection?

    It is even more difficult on complex issues such as NATO. Doesn´t mean the idea to position USA against Turkey is impossible (although rather wild considering how much weaker Israel is than Turkey and then there is RU above all…). Kent appears to simplify things. And NATO is not a simple issue. And neither is the Pentagon (with personnel who often probably know more about these matters than Kent), a CIA, an NSA, STRATCOM or those notorious think tanks.

    Accordingto Wikispooks he lost his wife, a cryptologist in a Syria bombing and then left the service to work for media outlets to then return to government. This is not entirely different to Hegseth – a new sort of career of US officials?

    (Although Hegseth is dimensions less competent and less experienced.)

    Dudes who mix media and military to then be called into the Administration. How much do these people really understand…
    1. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 8:56 am

       I saw an interview of Joe Kent by the guys at The Duran and it was seriously underwhelming. It made me wonder if Joe Kent was still a DC swamp creature at heart. They were all talking of the necessity of completely opening up the Strait of Hormuz and totally ignoring the fact that the Iranians are going to need tens of billions of dollars to rebuild their country and where was that money to come from?
       1. ISL April 10, 2026 at 10:19 am

          I could only listen to about 10 minutes and then decided it was not worth my time. Sorry Alex’s, but you need to push back sometimes – I know its not your style, but, you are losing viewers.
          1. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 10:24 am

             I watched most of it but had to shut it down before the end. First time that I have done that for a Duran video. Like you said, there was no push back.
             1. AG April 10, 2026 at 12:27 pm

                Yeah, the lack of push back is a journalistic problem at some point.
                It´s almost a “school of thought” of how to do these things as opposed to the other approach which tries to be critical. Today however that criticism is often only fakery.

                Many conventional journalists today seem to lack the deep knowldege to be able to conduct an interview, be very critical by substance and still not come across as serving an agenda or merely try to provoke. Of course by now they don´t even get the chance to develop this skill in the first place.

                A far as I remember my limited readings of the NEW YORKER´s Isaac Chotiner that guy tried to do it but came across as goofy more often than tolerable for me (and John Mearsheimer too, I think.)
       2. Mikel April 10, 2026 at 11:58 am

          I didn’t listen, but I took a look at the comments under that video.
          A significant amount of “Do not trust this guy” posts.

          Also, he’s another one that’s had support from Peter Thiel.
          1. AG April 10, 2026 at 12:31 pm

             Thiel? Interesting. That´s like an ultimate knock-out argument against Kent.
    2. Socal Rhino April 10, 2026 at 9:12 am

       He was a special forces soldier who joined the paramilitary branch of the CIA. He has no senior command or analyst experience.

       His sudden prominence hits me the same way as the chorus of voices promoting Vance as the serious member of the administration. Neither seems organic. If I had to guess, this is setting the stage for a republican comeback after Trump goes down in flames.
       1. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 9:34 am

          ….a Bizarro World Oliver North?
          1. paul April 10, 2026 at 9:44 am

             Forest Grunt
             1. david lamy April 10, 2026 at 12:49 pm

                paul, you endangered my keyboard!
          2. Cetzer April 10, 2026 at 9:57 am

             After all the good experience with ripened presidents, Oliver North (82 and still kickbacking) seems to be a worthy candidate to succeed Trump. Unbeatable will be North’s evergreen wordplay: I don’t need an expensive military, I’ve got Ol’ Ray Gun on my side.
          3. ambrit April 10, 2026 at 10:02 am

             The ‘real’ Ollie North is Bizarro enough. In fact, Joe Kent reminds me a bit of Ollie North. Didn’t he once work as a mild mannered reporter for the Daily Planet?
             1. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 10:04 am

                …perhaps you’re thinking of Mike Johnson?
                1. ambrit April 10, 2026 at 10:33 am

                   “Fighting for ‘Official’ Truth, Transactional Justice, and the Capitalist Way!”
    3. Quintian and Lucius April 10, 2026 at 10:04 am

       To the extent Kent has any analytical value, it’s as a recent administration insider with an I-was-in-the-room perspective on some of the cast we all talk about and around. I saw the same interview the good reverend did with the Duran and – notwithstanding that the youtube commentariat was flechetting him and the Alexes – he brought up aspects of, for example, the Israeli pitch that I’d not seen covered even in that massive NYT narrative-setter.
       That said, the man will not say a single negative thing about el presidente.
       I for one believe he is functioning truly as MAGA-internal controlled opposition, almost certainly intentionally. Telegenic, eloquent (if not as you observe exceptionally knowledgeable), willing to approach the MTG/Massie position – but without going over the ledge of condemnation for the misdeeds of the present administration – he exists to glue the base together, and I would be extremely unsurprised if he believed he could be president someday in the not too distant future.
       1. pjay April 10, 2026 at 11:30 am

          I have a strong aversion to Michael Tracey these days for a number of reasons, but especially for his transparently dishonest campaign to “debunk” the whole Epstein saga. Nevertheless I read the whole transcript of this interview with Kent. I have to say that he did a much better job holding Kent to account on Trump’s own responsibility for the current Iran debacle than other interviewers, refusing to let him blame “the Lobby” for everything. This does track with Tracey’s tendency to minimize the influence of Israel on US policy (and any links Israel might have to Epstein, a “conspiracy theory” he implies is “antisemitic”.) But he does raise a number of relevant questions when Kent keeps returning to the “Trump was duped by Israel” line. Tracey also asked Kent a number of uncomfortable questions concerning his own apparent support for Trump’s earlier actions like the assassination of Soleimani, the JCPOA, and Iranian sanctions. He did this using the very strong criticisms of these measures by his former boss and close associate Tulsi Gabbard, which was a rather devious but effective tactic that had Kent dancing around a bit. I didn’t watch the video so I lacked the cues of body language, but based on the transcript Tracey did expose some, um, “contradictions” in Kent’s current position, at least in comparison to some he once held.

          Of course Tracey still irritated me. Naturally he brought up the Epstein issue and tried to get Kent to agree that the notion of Epstein as an intelligence asset was goofy. Kent didn’t take the bait. Tracey’s take on Putin and the Ukraine conflict at the end of the discussion was also irritating; an example of “Tracey the Contrarian” at his finest. Still, overall it was a better interview than most of the fawning examples I’ve seen so far.
          1. AG April 10, 2026 at 12:17 pm

             Good idea, I forgot the transcript.

             (Tracey makes the impression of using too much coke tbh. Which is not a serious argument for/against his work of course. I wonder where Tracey´s position vis a vis Israel would be compared to Finkelstein/Rabbani and a Mearsheimer/Walt. If there would be any overlaps.)
          2. Quintian and Lucius April 10, 2026 at 12:52 pm

             and any links Israel might have to Epstein, a “conspiracy theory” he implies is “antisemitic”

             I understand that in Iran they believe that if you drop an insult, its owner will come along to collect it in due course.
             Not especially familiar with Tracey myself but there is a utility for these characters with an agenda so naked that they’ve honed their capacity to defend that agenda against another (more clothed) agenda. A chill runs up my spine every time I’ve heard or read Kent mention Soleimani. He admits in the Duran talk that Soleimani worked with the US – very effectively – against ISIS even after crowing about his assassination. It’s ghoulish.
          3. boshko April 10, 2026 at 1:38 pm

             agreed re: tracey. i don’t respect him as a journalist and he’d be better categorized as contrarian entertainer at best.

             he seems to be skeptical of the officialdom when it suits him, but then take hook, line and sinker when, re: Epstein, he’s willing to fall on his sword arguing there’s only a single DOJ conviction for the case of a single 17y in FL. ergo serial pedophile is wild MSM mania because we should trust the investigation in its entirety. he thinks all the other “victims” are fame whores or after money or….manufactured?

             also, years ago, he and Taibbi (he’s basically Taibbi’s contrarian sidekick as far as i can tell, yucking it up without any serious insights or journalism) made a great deal of the creepiness (as in surveillance creepiness) of using wastewater plants to track covid outbreaks. this is good use of science afaik and i’ve relied on these data for years to track the waves of covid. they framed it as these creepy feds with mission creep are now surveilling your poo! jouvenile “journalism” at best, is my take on tracey.

             and twitter files aside, taibbi all too often is in the same category. he’s regressed. i no longer pay for his racket news.
             1. nippersmom April 10, 2026 at 5:01 pm

                I have been seriously considering cancelling my subscription as well. I agree, his reporting is not what it once was.
    4. JohnH April 10, 2026 at 10:25 am

       Regarding Joe Kent, you don’t get a job in Washington blob unless you are already thoroughly marinated in acceptable assumptions and pre-conceptions. It’s laudable that he had enough critical thinking skills to recognize what the Zionists were up to.

       Most political critters get totally brainwashed on their first trip to Israel. I wonder if the Zionists somehow missed sending him…
    5. Eclair April 10, 2026 at 11:32 am

       Joe Kent is extremely photogenic, almost Kennedyesque in his jawline, teeth and hair. (The original Kennedy’s, not the latest editions.) I am thinking his next move is into politics.
       1. AG April 10, 2026 at 11:41 am

          Aren´t Americans getting tired of these jawlines messing up their politics due to trying to square (pun intended) every circle…

          It would be an interesting essay to assess the influence of abuse of testosterone by politician-turned former Marines and Special Forces on the history of US politics.
          1. Quintian and Lucius April 10, 2026 at 12:45 pm

             You would think so but we do elect with some regularity less aesthetically complete characters and they’re no better whilst being difficult to look at.
             1. AG April 10, 2026 at 2:17 pm

                Right.

                But is it possible that the rate of politicians being elected due to looks has increased with the rise of visual media?
                1. Quintian and Lucius April 10, 2026 at 6:21 pm

                   That’s the common wisdom regarding, say, JFK/Nixon back in antiquity; I’ve no idea if the data’s there though. In any case that hasn’t been any impediment to el presidente just now.
    6. Paradox of Unrealized Power April 10, 2026 at 9:44 pm

       I have watched only limited amount of Joe Kent interviews but so far I have doubts about the substance of his geopolitical statements.

       His genuine expertise to me seems to be mostly confined to how to use force against what he calls terrorist groups. A rather limited mind. But correct me if I am wrong.

       Not that my interpretation means much, but I think he decided to come forward/was put forward to spread a few key points that officials in the Administration cannot say publicly, especially regarding the uncomfortable truths about the US relationship with Israel. Whether the intended recipient is the public at large or Trump in particular, I do not know, although I would personally guess that it is the latter.

       Interpretation does not equal insight, though–I could be way off on this
16. Howard L April 10, 2026 at 8:52 am

    Wall Street certainly feels the US/Iran war is over. Nasdaq and S&P 500 have gone up 7 straight days and the Dow Jones Transport index has rocketed to all time highs, a whopping 12% in 7 days.
    1. Samuel Conner April 10, 2026 at 9:12 am

       This might be a good thing — it may provide DJT with disagreeable prospects if he attempts to restart “hot” hostilities.

       I listen to the Coles/Wolff “Inside Trump’s Head” Daily Beast podcast for the occasional insider or insider-adjacent glimpse that Wolff claims to have. In the 4/9 podcast Wolff expressed the view that Trump caved to Iran — publicly accepting the 10 points as basis for negotiation as there was no alternative and DJT needed an off-ramp before the Tuesday 8 PM “end a civilization” deadline. IIRC, Wolff thinks DJT won’t be able to restart the “hot” war. I hope he’s right.
17. MicaT April 10, 2026 at 9:03 am

    I listened to Col Wilkerson yesterday I think, say that Israel or the US has bombed the Chinese railway, belt and road. I don’t know what China will do.
    And it appears Israel or the US has bombed some Russian ports. What will Russia do.
    Absolute insanity
    1. cristobal April 10, 2026 at 1:38 pm

       I hve read that the Chechens are itching for a fight. It would be interesting to see them go to the aid of Hezbollah
18. Will April 10, 2026 at 9:07 am

    re ceasefire as cover for US to build up forces

    According to Nima at Dialogue Works, two can play at this game. At about 16:50 of yesterday’s talk with Pepe, Nima claims that one of the reasons Iran agreed to a ceasefire is to upgrade its defensive capabilities. He’s unsure exactly what, whether electronic warfare or air defence, but the Chinese can complete this improvement in just two weeks. Is linked to the recent arrival of three very large cargo planes from China.

    https://www.youtube.com/live/Hx9ZFggIPeI?si=lSlQD6M3sXALHYYY
    1. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 9:16 am

       There were also report of the Russian bringing in an S-500 system into Iran which is their best. If that is true, then that is capable of taking down not only the B-52s but also the B-1s.
       1. WJ April 10, 2026 at 10:25 am

          I do not believe this can be true. Darryl Cooper and others with operational weapons knowledge note that the S-500 involves 12-17 separate vehicles and radars, possibly more than 100 troops to operate, and would require months and months of training and integration with an existing AD network of the sort that Iran does not currently possess.

          This does not rule out other forms of aid from Russia and China of course.
          1. dt1964 April 10, 2026 at 1:30 pm

             The S500 systems could also include already trained Russian technicians.
19. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 9:10 am

    I met him 3 weeks before the war
    Where you assassinate Ali and it tastes just like Zionist coda
    C O D A coda
    He walked up to me and he asked me to do a do diligence dalliance
    I asked if we needed assistance and in a dark brown voice he said, Fuck NATO
    N A T O NATO na-na-na-na NATO

    Well I’m not the world’s most with it guy
    But when he squeezed me tight on Epstein
    I knew we were destined to both tow the line
    Well I’m not dumb but I can’t understand
    Why he made such a demand
    Oh my Bibi la-la-la-la Bibi la-la-la-la Bibi

    Well we drank in the early results
    Under assassination via neo-Sicarii cult
    He picked me up and talked of Israel going to the sea
    And said little goy won’t you come lebensraum with me
    Well I’m not the world’s most passionate guy
    But when I looked at the possibilities well I fell for my Bibi
    La-la-la-la Bibi la-la-la-la Bibi
    Bibi la-la-la-la Bibi la-la-la-la Bibi
    La-la-la-la Bibi
    I pushed him away
    I walked to the door
    I fell to the floor
    I got down on my knees
    Then I looked at him and he at me

    Well that’s the way that I want it to stay
    And I always want it to be that way for my Bibi
    La-la-la-la Bibi
    Grifters will be goys and grown up goys will be with 13 year old girls
    It’s a mixed up muddled up shook up world except for Bibi

    Well I’m not the world’s most honest man
    But I know what I am and I’m glad I’m a man
    And so is Bibi
    La-la-la-la Bibi la-la-la-la Bibi
    Bibi la-la-la-la Bibi la-la-la-la Bibi

    Lola, by the Kinks

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv4et3RIMcg&list=RDJv4et3RIMcg
20. ventzu April 10, 2026 at 9:13 am

    Article from a couple of days ago commenting on ex-FM Zarif’s opinion piece in Foreign Affairs at the beginning of this month. It caused some considerable disagreement in Iran.

    https://amwaj.media/en/media-monitor/irans-zarif-draws-fire-after-floating-proposal-for-peace-with-the-us

    “Zarif’s op-ed has landed at a moment when Iran’s internal balance of power is in flux.
    – The IRGC’s senior command has been severely degraded by weeks of US-Israeli strikes, while the pragmatist wing has remained largely intact.
    – The possibility that Zarif and moderate former president Rouhani—who has called for “immediate reforms”—are moving in apparent coordination reinforces the reading of a coordinated political push, not a lone freelance intervention.”

    Not sure what political bias “Amwaj.media” has. Its articles seem to reporting neutrally, though in this particular article it does quote a couple of dissidents.
    1. doug April 10, 2026 at 10:22 am

       The editor gets interviewed by NPR, if that gives you a clue..
    2. Will April 10, 2026 at 1:06 pm

       Nima and Pepe discussed this yesterday. Per Nima, Zarif is a marginal figure in the reformist movement. Further, Nima says Zarif has little to no influence on the leadership which he says is very united at the moment. In general, Nima believes Western commentators badly misunderstand Zarif’s position and influence within Iranian politics.

       Starting at 21:20

       https://www.youtube.com/live/Hx9ZFggIPeI?si=DEcIvlKfmKf0sEWK
21. Jeremy Grimm April 10, 2026 at 9:19 am

    Just speculating — is it possible that Iran is playing out the ceasefire to give Trump enough time to amass a hasty ground invasion? How might another but larger fiasco losing men and materiel affect Trump … the u.s. military and the American Populace?
    1. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 9:25 am

       What would the effect be of videos of hundreds of US Marines being marched into captivity be? Is the Pentagon ready to risk that? Is Trump? It could so easily happen.
       1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 10:44 am

          Even better than the Lego videos! And then the enemy could send the CIA and special forces in to rescue them …
    2. Louis Fyne April 10, 2026 at 9:26 am

       ttump is not a 4–D thinker. probably a recommendation from Pentagon careerists. Full spectrum dominance at the negotiating table, cuz America!
    3. KLG April 10, 2026 at 9:34 am

       Seems reasonable to me. Maybe the Iranians are familiar with the African-American folk tales collected and published by Joel Chandler Harris? The thing is this time there is no briar patch where Br’er Rabbit can escape.
       1. You're soaking in it? April 10, 2026 at 10:02 am

          “But tar baby don’t say nothin . . .”
    4. ISL April 10, 2026 at 10:32 am

       I think it was Nima – said large chinese military transport planes are landing in Iran – Nima argued that Iran has no need for offensive missiles – personal SWAG is also parts or raw materials for missile fabrication – and thought China was providing AD systems (and probably operators). Especially since the US seems fixated on a ground attack to recover Uranium based on Mossad (I mean IAE dis-) information, the areas to concentrate A/D are focused (not the European-sized Iran).

       Also, on Electronic Intifada (Jon Elmer), photos of destroyed helicopters inside their hardened bunkers were shown – the power of a Shahed over a missile – if there are no interceptors, then Shaheds can simply fly in under the hardening to take out a target- using 10 kg of explosive instead of a ton. Much more efficient.

       Alistair on Daniel Davis just confirmed the Reaper loss at 52000 feet. Russian EW or S-400? I always believed the good AD was reserved for when the US tries waves of B2s (or B52s). Some will get through, but can the US stand 25% attrition (per WW2) with no rare earth replacements for long?
       1. Revenant April 10, 2026 at 4:50 pm

          Iran could do the funniest thing, if the US is searching for hidden uranium-235 using SQUID’s.

          They could hide all the depleted U-238 they have stockpiled as a waste product of the process, all around the borders of their big old country. A present for the Easter bunny! And then drone strike every site….

          (The SQUID positive wouldn’t fool follow up with a modern radiation detector which can fingerprint an isotope, possibly even a mixture, but you’d have to get close enough to distinguish between the null signal from shielding by metres of earth and rock versus the null signal of U-235 depletion.)
       2. nyleta April 10, 2026 at 4:56 pm

          Iran is more likely to need sodium perchlorate shipments from China, but these are risky shipments at the best of times.

          The reason for the clouds of planes still up is that the necessary communications with the missile cities to start and stop operations could expose their operational security. Recall these were locked down with pre-prepared strike packages and a Russian style doomsday radio triggers. The Israeli/US spooks would hope that with a limited number of people able to give orders to them they could find some of them. It is pretty obvious their intelligence is not good. It took 36 hrs to get the missile commanders to stop and if they restart they will have to be even more careful to hide their communications.

          The negotiations are of course in bad faith but Iran has to try to keep faith with their supporters. Brave men those negotiators.
22. Will April 10, 2026 at 9:27 am

    re China’s fertilizer export ban in response to Trump

    I thought China announced an export ban last month. IIRC, something China does regularly to maintain low prices domestically. I did a quick search for a new export ban targeting the U.S. and didn’t find anything. Many older reports however from last month and even previous years.
    1. Ignacio April 10, 2026 at 10:05 am

       The X post was almost certainly talking about the 20th March news on China restricting fertilizer exports.

       It is interesting to note that while oil quotes are very responsive to news like the supposed ceasefire agreement, other commodities like sulphur are unmoved by Middle East ceasefire amid supply doubts.

       My question is: do Brent Futures or other oil benchmarks have any real meaning? (at least these days).
       1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 10:48 am

          You can’t make anything, apart from money, with Brent futures.
       2. Will April 10, 2026 at 3:20 pm

          Which is why I’m wondering why it’s now suddenly (supposedly) news almost a month later. Especially since Trump iirc very early on threw a hissy fit about Spain not falling in line, declared tariffs on anybody trading with Spain then quietly shelved it all and hasn’t (afaik) said anything more about Spain since. To me, seems like made-up click-bait.

          Similarly with the Russia LNG tweet immediate below it in the post. The second tweet (not shown in the post) explains a 40% discount on Russian LNG is likely because of the uncertainty around how long buyers can expect to benefit from the temporary sanctions waiver. So the framing of the first tweet, that the Russians are deliberately underpricing their LNG to troll Trump, is misleading. Intentionally so as the second tweet also has a link to a seminar on how to trade the current situation.
23. Revenant April 10, 2026 at 9:29 am

    Re Saudi East-West pipeline:

    There was a very interesting break-down of the East-West pipeline capacity. A lot of it is apparently spoken for by refineries and power plants on the Saudi Arabian Red Sea coast that serve domestic markets. Ergo a 700k barrel per day loss of capacity out of a headline 7m is actually a much bigger cut in either domestic or export supply, depending on what Saudi Arabia prioritizes.
    1. ISL April 10, 2026 at 10:35 am

       Stanislav Krapitnik pointed out that pipelines are easy to repair, whereas pump stations can take months or even longer – this was not a message from Iran, as it was the pump station that Iran hit. Headlines about the pipeline being hit are market calming (but deceptive).
24. Ben Panga April 10, 2026 at 9:31 am

    On why Iran isn’t responding to Lebanon strikes, here’s a long @ripplebrain post from yesterday.

    Tl;dr= they think it’s the best way to break support for Israel.

    [I am sharing not necessarily supporting their argument]

    —–

    Here’s my best guess at what’s going on right now. Iran and Israel are in a game of diplomatic chicken, each trying to fracture the other’s military coalition. The Israelis want to either continue the broader war or reduce it in scope by forcing the Iranians to abandon Hezbollah. The Iranians are attempting to exert pressure on the US to restrain Israel and withdraw from the war, while trying to isolate Israel internationally.

    Much of the commentariat on here is focused on the Iranians ‘revealing their weakness’ by not immediately launching a counterattack on Israel. This doesn’t make much sense to me. The Iranians almost immediately played their strongest non-escalatory card by re-closing the strait. Doing so exerts pressure on the US, not on Israel, which shows the Iranians understand the fundamental reality of the power structure they’re up against. The Israelis can only be stopped by forcing the US to restrain them, or taking huge escalatory steps that have a good chance of leading to Israeli nuclear strikes on Iran (desalination plants, energy infrastructure). The closure of the strait denies Trump any claim to a military victory and compounds the economic damage that’s already inevitable at this point.

    Meanwhile, there’s been a flurry of diplomatic activity from Iran. Spain and South Korea are making moves by reopening their embassy in Iran and sending a special envoy to Tehran, respectively. A increasingly long list of countries have made public statements over the past day demanding Lebanon be covered by the ceasefire. Araghchi has been calling everyone in the region over the past 24 hours, and the UAE has publicly condemned the Israeli strikes on Lebanon (very surprising). These are good signs for Iran, which can achieve major gains in Israel’s international isolation by capitalizing on their breaking of the ceasefire.

    Even better are the signs of the normalization of relations with the rest of the world. If this continues, it’ll demonstrate how fundamentally effective the Iranian strategy has been in this war. If they can secure broad international recognition of their right to control and impose tolls on passage through the strait, it’ll be a massive victory. The continued closure of the strait, which the Iranians have made clear is the fault of Israel, will drive a wedge into the coalition currently fighting Iran.

    The Iranians have made dozens of statements asserting they will not abandon Lebanon. And I don’t think it’s politically tenable (internally) for them to do so even if they wanted to. The Israelis aren’t doing particularly well in their ground war against Hezbollah either.

    So we’ll have to wait to see how this plays out. It’s not impossible that the Iranians are in a weakened position, or that they’ll lose their nerve. But I don’t see any reason to assume this is the case as long as the strait remains closed. The current situation is a pressure cooker for the US/Israeli relationship, and the American relationship with the rest of the world. Iranian patience makes sense here.
    1. hemeantwell April 10, 2026 at 9:55 am

       Thanks. This makes sense and confirms my initial impression that Zarif’s opinion piece about divisions in the Iranian leadership, quoted in a comment up above, is simply FUD peddling.
    2. Ignacio April 10, 2026 at 10:16 am

       I like this because this is more or less what I was thinking (he, he, confirmation bias). When talking about weakened positions IMO it should be precised about weakened relative positions. IMO, Iran, Israel and the US are all now weaker than before this started. The question is which one is being weakened the most. Weakened is not the same as damaged. Pressure must be building globally and domestically in an asymmetric way in each of these countries.
       1. tegnost April 10, 2026 at 10:32 am

          I pick the US to be weakened the most unless the izzies get wiped off the map entirely, it’s like one of those hollywood western towns, the street is bustling with activity, but go behind the scenes and lo and behold it’s all a facade.
          1. Ignacio April 10, 2026 at 10:50 am

             Iran, with the control of Hormuz, has strengthened its position very much. Most of us (Ignacio included) haven’t still internalized such important change.
    3. Paradox of Unrealized Power April 10, 2026 at 11:12 am

       I’ve been going through his posts for the last couple of months–whoever this guy is, he is not always correct, but he is remarkably bright/on the ball.
       1. Revenant April 10, 2026 at 4:55 pm

          Ripplebrain, policytensor, armchair warlord are all valuable voices.

          I’ve discovered in the last fortnight @cirnosad, whose predictions have been impeccable (even if his racist worldview is deplorable). But he has imploded in depression this week that Iran has choked at the moment of victory by accepting a ceasefire and negotiating with the perfidious US and has rage-quit twitter.
    4. danpaco April 10, 2026 at 5:01 pm

       Alon Mitzrahi’s latest video, only available on his substack, touches on the Iranian strategy and what the 3 battlefields are. Its well worth a view/listen and certainly backs up some of what you are saying above.
       https://alonmizrahi.substack.com/p/day-41-no-ceasefire-with-zionism?post_id=193609306&r=tcf1w&utm_source=substack
    5. Lee April 10, 2026 at 5:16 pm

       “The Israelis can only be stopped by forcing the US to restrain them, or taking huge escalatory steps that have a good chance of leading to Israeli nuclear strikes on Iran (desalination plants, energy infrastructure). The closure of the strait denies Trump any claim to a military victory and compounds the economic damage that’s already inevitable at this point.”

       At 34 minutes into his talk at the Arab Center in Washington D.C. Mearsheimer expresses the belief that there is a considerable risk that Israel, fearing a nuclear armed Iran, and failing to prevent this from happening using conventional weapons, will nuke Iran, and that the Trump administration will not stop them. I do hope he’s mistaken on this point.
       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXQLRDDmU6Q
25. Aurelien April 10, 2026 at 9:51 am

    Some of the commentators I have read or listened to seem to be coming at this situation a bit sideways. There are things that are important here, and things that are not.

    All that matters is what actually happens on the ground. The rest is background noise. There is no “ceasefire” as such, in any accepted sense of the word. There is, or was, some kind of understanding between the US and Iran for dialing down the level of violence and making it easier for ships to pass through Hormuz. But nothing was formalised, there are no observers, no agreed document or anything. Indeed, it’s not even clear that there is a reciprocal agreement, as opposed to parallel sets of decisions by the two states.

    I keep telling people not to use the word “negotiations” too easily. What happened in Islamabad was not “negotiations,” which imply an agreed agenda, agreed objective, and formal documents. At the most you could call them “exploratory talks,” designed to set out positions and demands. I suspect that there was no real “negotiation” at all, but just two delegations talking past each other. The most that might have been agreed (and even “agreed” is too strong a word) is that the US would do X and Iran would do Y, as each side interpreted it. There are no agreed records of the discussion at all, and each party would have its own reasons for giving a different account of what happened. (It is of course normal in such discussions for the parties to come away with different ideas of how they went.) So the US and Iran are almost certainly misrepresenting what happened, to their advantage. The US has its eyes on reassuring the markets and keeping oil prices down. The Iranians would have majored on Lebanon, partly because they are keen to get back the influence they used to have in the country, but also because they recognise that they can drive a wedge between Israel and the US, which is sensible tactics on their part. Pakistan, as the host, would be keen to present the outcome in the most favourable light possible.

    The military side is not really important either, because the crisis will be resolved eventually by economic factors. The US cannot achieve its objectives militarily, now or ever, even if it could articulate them properly, but by contrast it could take a lot of damage. But as long as geography remains unchanged, Iran controls Hormuz, so they have possession of the ball. The flights into the region are probably rotation of personnel and equipment , spares, remaining missiles and such basics as food. There is no further reserve of military capability that the US could call on to improve its chances of winning. Thus, there is no “trap” because in reality the longer the US stays in the region the more its forces will become degraded. The Iranians have time and Hormuz, and they can afford to wait. They may well have their own reasons for whatever the undertook to do in Islamabad, but those don’t include weakness or naivety. It follows that anyone who can write that the “ceasefire” is a “pretext for preparing the ground invasion to seize control of the Persian Gulf and occupy Iran for US-Israeli joint exploitation” is, to put it politely, living in a parallel reality. (Who is Kathleen Tyson anyway?

    It would take far too long to set out the situation regarding Lebanon, but very briefly no, they are not a puppet of Israel: the Israelis burned the last support they had in the Maronite community a long time ago. They are “the enemy.” The establishment of the monopoly of legitimate force in the hands of the elected government (what is referred to as “disarmament”) has been a Lebanese objective for a long time. After the kicking Hezbollah received in 2024 and the fall of the Assad government, it became possible to form a government and elect a President, and the process actually got off to a rather shaky start. Now it’s all gone to rats. Of all the stupid consequences of this stupid war, one is that Iran, on the ropes eighteen months ago, will re-emerge as the regional power once more, but this time much stronger. Clever, that.
    1. hemeantwell April 10, 2026 at 10:01 am

       Thanks. Oh, how I wish the people who are worrying about increased air traffic would keep this in mind:

       There is no further reserve of military capability that the US could call on to improve its chances of winning. Thus, there is no “trap” because in reality the longer the US stays in the region the more its forces will become degraded.
       1. hk April 10, 2026 at 12:39 pm

          TBF, I don’t think most traps are laid as “traps” from the beginning: they work only if the other side does something stupid and you don’t want your fate to depend on the other side’s foolishness. I think most “good” traps are contingency plans that develop organically. I imagine there is a “trap” in the sense that Iranians have plans that probably will work to counter US escalation via ground “attack” (in quotes because we don’t have assets for a real attack…)
    2. Steve H. April 10, 2026 at 10:34 am

       > I keep telling people not to use the word “negotiations” too easily.

       In a mediation the actions so far would qualify as an intake interview. Participants are not in the room together, and there is a measure of time for mediators to reflect on how and what is said.

       The published criteria serve as position statements (positions v interests). Some are in direct contradiction with each other, and proposed verification mechanisms have already proved mortally flawed (IAEA).

       The result of the intake sessions is for mediators to decide if the dispute is appropriate for mediation. I’ve only been involved in one case less appropriate than this situation. Referred by the courts, the plaintiff made clear he wanted to punish the neighbor kid who stole his four-wheeler, wanted him in jail, and for him the whole mediation process was just an additional way to harass the kid and his family. Not as subtle as the dance we’re seeing in West Asia.
    3. ISL April 10, 2026 at 10:43 am

       I agree with everything you say, but point out that Trump and his sycophants appear to live in a parallel reality, for example, believing tariffs are paid by foreigners – or that US air defenses work so it never put bunkers on its west asian airbases (oops, that is pre-Trump Pentagon) and that it could win against Iran (despite war games US conducted at great cost saying nope).

       Just seeing Vance talk about how positive he is about negotiations. But then he is a dissembler, isn’t he. Of course, the 10 points are pre-conditions by Iran.
    4. Darthbobber April 10, 2026 at 10:54 am

       Isn’t the rise of Hizbullah partly attributable to the failure of the ostensible Lebanese government to offer even token resistance to the first Israeli invasion?
       1. Auirelien April 10, 2026 at 12:29 pm

          Well, the Lebanese were having their own civil war at the time (1982) and if the Lebanese Army hadn’t exactly split into factions, it was close to it. Moreover, there were groups in Lebanon at the time who looked to Israel as protectors (not because they liked them, just as a counterweight to other forces.) There was therefore no question of defending the country as such: indeed, for many people the country was less important than the interests of the ethnicity and the clan. Hezbollah did gain quite a bit of credibility among all sections of the population subsequently, but this started to fade as they became a political party and took part in government, often playing an unhelpful role on behalf of Iran. Then of course, they turned themselves into the problem rather than the solution, and embroiled the country in two unnecessary wars.

          The whole history of the rise of Hezbollah is fascinating, and it could probably only have happened in Lebanon. There are several very good books about them by people who know the organisation intimately. Nick Blandford’s Warriors of God is a bit dated now, but very informative on the early years.
          1. Darthbobber April 10, 2026 at 2:55 pm

             There still seems to be no question of using the army to defend the country as such.

             Reminds me of that time when the Polkos and Moderados elevated their disagreements into civil war in Mexico City and couldn’t be troubled to resist Scott’s landing at Veracruz or his advance from there.
          2. Mathaus April 10, 2026 at 3:13 pm

             Hezbollah’s biggest mistake was to have pardoned the Lebanese fascists who provoked massacres against Muslims.
    5. Paradox of Unrealized Power April 10, 2026 at 11:18 am

       There is no further reserve of military capability that the US could call on to improve its chances of winning. Thus, there is no “trap” because in reality the longer the US stays in the region the more its forces will become degraded. The Iranians have time and Hormuz, and they can afford to wait.

       Insofar as there is a “reserve of military capability”, I think it would be other countries’ militaries, and so the goal would be to expand the war to include other countries.

       I hope that this is unlikely and I believe that this would be an outright disaster, but other than that, a few additional Aegis missiles and a few extra standoff munitions is not going to change a thing, whereas doing anything that delays the opening of Straits is going to be a disaster.
    6. vidimi April 10, 2026 at 3:51 pm

       sigh.

       Kathleen Tyson started her career as a central banker at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. She was a founder member of the Systemic Risks Studies Group. She moved to London to supervise the London Stock Exchange, Clearstream, Euroclear, and Swift, and oversee legal and operational reforms to digitalise UK securities. She globalised US dollar liquidity with Clearstream, co-inventing Triparty Repo (now $10.2 trillion in daily secured interbank lending) and adding clearing and settlement of US Treasuries, bonds and equities to the Luxembourg depository. Next she advised on CLS Bank governance and designed its operations with IBM.

       she was also a good follow on xitter before I got banned there after being reported by Israeli trolls for writing that Israel routinely steals Palestinian organs.

       I would like to bookmark this post for when the US attempts a massive ground invasion while feigning negotiations so we can see who was right, Kathleen Tyson or Aurelien (Who is Aurelien anyway)?
       1. ArvidMartensen April 10, 2026 at 5:17 pm

          Yes, a good question re Aurelian. Why does he need to hide his identity? What is his background? I think at one stage he used the name ‘David’ but could be wrong.

          And why does his commentary have a whiff of the old upper-class British ‘keep calm and carry on’ and nothing to see here?
          1. Who Cares April 11, 2026 at 12:27 am

             Well Aurelien is British and has been in the medium to upper levels of the British government service. That might explain that whiff you detected.

             Anyhow here is their substack: link
             1. ArvidMartensen April 11, 2026 at 3:34 am

                Thanks
       2. ISL April 10, 2026 at 9:24 pm

          Where I disagree with Aurelian is his use of logic to predict and interpret Trump administration actions (other than Grift). I understand the importance of a strong faith in reason, but with the insane (or dementia) it just doesn’t work.
    7. Revenant April 10, 2026 at 4:58 pm

       Why is Iran’s improved position a stupid consequence, except in the US/Zionist position?
26. AG April 10, 2026 at 9:53 am

    re: intern. law and passing of Hormuz

    via Craig Murray

    A panel on Al Jazeera
    TC 4:40
    24 min.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zVM97BWrcs&t=732s

    Guests:

    Hassan Ahmadian — Associate Professor at the University of Tehran
    Rockford Weitz — Maritime Studies Program Director at Tufts University’s Fletcher School
    Craig Murray — Maritime specialist and former Maritime Section head of the UK’s Foreign Office

    p.s. since Murray makes that point in the end:

    How real was Ukrainian damage to the Russian Black Sea Fleet?
    And probably more important: How significant for the modern battlefield was that part of the fleet anyhow that was potentially hit? Mayb a useless success in the end?
27. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 9:57 am

    ‘Lukas Ekwueme
    @ekwufinance
    Markets are delusional
    we’ve already lost:
    – ~30% of fertilizers
    – ~20% of LNG
    – ~14% of oil
    – ~30% of helium’

    When it comes time to write the history of this war, this will be one of the most bizarre chapters in it. The Masters of the Universe are looking at the same information that we are and yet they continue to act like this is all just a minor hiccup instead of a coronary attack. Do they believe this? Or are they trying to make bank by buying the artificial dips. Or are they simply incompetent at their jobs and are going with the flow or something. It’s so weird.
    1. tegnost April 10, 2026 at 10:11 am

       the thing is, these “Masters” exercise their will over the citizens (oops…consumers ie citizens are members, consumers are needy and need to be supplied, you know, by “Masters”) of their countries with absolute impunity and there is no voice for citizens. It’s taxation without representation. And they look at the world and say “We do what we want here in eusa, and we’ll do whatever we want globally, but the globe is to some extent saying no. Consumers can’t change the dynamic forced upon them (citizens united…hey wait, why do corps get to be citizens but not people? The Patriot Act, warrantless wiretapping…we are not a free country.) but countries? They can say “yeah, no.” and the Masters are just like…”Whud? Zhou Vil Obey! On your knees mendicant!”
       In other words we’re totally screwed.
    2. Ignacio April 10, 2026 at 10:30 am

       I put a comment above which would be more appropriately located here. May be there are markets (where you make deals and sell/buy stuff or a service) and Markets (where you place bets) and the latter, we have seen many times, can remain delusional for too long.
    3. Cetzer April 10, 2026 at 10:35 am

       The shortages are almost here, they will just be not very evenly distributed.
       What does a Master of the Universe care about lousy earthworms?
       1. Joe Renter April 10, 2026 at 12:10 pm

          I think we will see continued protests and further escalation as the storage of oil and gas and associated products intensifies.
          The economic system may go in crisis mode. As to what that looks like we can only assume it will be ugly. Hold on to your hats!
       2. nyleta April 10, 2026 at 3:44 pm

          Looks like PVC first here in the Asian region, plumber next door said PVC pipe was already hard to get before and with Formosa Plastics and others running out of naphtha it will be another market gone to China with its PVC based on coal instead. The US will be making a killing but caustic soda is a sticking point and railways are scrambling for tanker cars for internal transshipment.
    4. NotTimothyGeithner April 10, 2026 at 12:41 pm

       The old axiom is “Markets are lagging indicators.” Then of course, we talk about various forms of gross wealth inequality. Until they need to sell stocks to pay debts, the #markets can stay green.

       Otherwise, what else are the parasites going to do? Economic “growth” has been driven by gambling and crypto over the last couple of years. Like the last two decades have shown, major players expect the Federales to bail them out.

       The notion that modern priest caste doesn’t seem to understand what is happening isn’t particularly surprising either.
28. Ann April 10, 2026 at 10:02 am

    The Netherlands preparing military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz

    https://nltimes.nl/2026/04/10/netherlands-preparing-military-intervention-strait-hormuz

    Zelensky says unnamed ‘partners’ asked Ukraine not to attack Russian oil refineries

    https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-unnamed-partners-asked-ukraine-not-to-attack-russian-oil-refineries/

    Ukraine secures oil lifeline from Gulf states in exchange for military support

    https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-secures-oil-lifeline-gulf-states-military-support/

    Poland hopes for more US troops as Trump threatens NATO exit

    https://tvpworld.com/92558239/kosiniak-kamysz-poland-hopes-for-greater-us-military-presence

    Vance warns Iran not to ‘play us’ as he leaves for talks

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/vance-warns-iran-not-play-us-he-leaves-talks-2026-04-10/

    UK’s Starmer and Trump discussed military options for Strait of Hormuz

    https://www.reuters.com/world/uks-starmer-says-he-discussed-military-options-strait-hormuz-with-us-president-2026-04-10/

    Ukraine shot down Iranian Shahed drones during Middle East war

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/10/ukraine-shot-down-iranian-shahed-drones-middle-east/

    World Food Programme warns Lebanon facing food security crisis due to Iran war

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/world-food-programme-warns-lebanon-facing-food-security-crisis-due-iran-war-2026-04-10/

    ‘Burn in hell’: Pak minister Khawaja Asif deletes post on Jews after Israel hits back

    https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/burn-in-hell-pak-minister-khwaja-asif-deletes-post-on-jews-after-israel-hits-back-iran-us-war-101775793046684.html

    Airline pilots fear retribution over refusing to fly in Middle East, aviators’ group says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/india/airline-pilots-fear-retribution-over-refusing-fly-middle-east-aviators-group-2026-04-10/
    1. Ignacio April 10, 2026 at 10:40 am

       The Netherlands preparing military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz
       https://nltimes.nl/2026/04/10/netherlands-preparing-military-intervention-strait-hormuz

       The Netherlands deciding that “we must do something”, of course “with the cooperation of everyone else” and double of course “when hostilities have ended”. Can this be considered “news”? I am suggesting that some of the links in there have no interest.
       1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 11:06 am

          Preparing, or considering (if that isn’t too strong a word)?
          “Although the situation remains uncertain, major interests are at stake for the Netherlands,” the Ministers wrote. The government is investigating the “desirability and feasibility of potential Dutch military deployment.” …

          “At present, the Netherlands is mapping out the various options for military contribution in order to make operational preparations and to enable timely deployment,” the Ministers said.

          (And I, for one, love Ann’s many links, even if a few aren’t up to much. Keep it up, and thank you!)
          1. Ann April 10, 2026 at 11:20 am

             You’re welcome, hereweare. I’ll try to avoid weak links.
             1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 12:49 pm

                No! I like your posts as they are. It takes little time to read through your posts, taking note of the various headlines and comments. I only click on a few links, and don’t mind if some turn out to be a bit so-so, which I can usually tell from the first paragraph or two. But many are worth reading, and I guess if you take more time ‘vetting’ them first, that’s less time for you to track them down. As far as I’m concerned, please keep it up, if it doesn’t exhaust you!
                1. Ann April 10, 2026 at 12:53 pm

                   OK, I understand. Actually, this is how I cope with the stress. It would be more exhausting if I quit doing it.
                   1. Huey April 10, 2026 at 6:58 pm

                      I fully agree with hereweare, Ann. I always look forward to catching up on your updates in between the major, daily posts.
                   2. Oregon Lawhobbit April 10, 2026 at 7:23 pm

                      “Sharing is caring!”

                      Your links are my favorite part of the comments section!

                      Yves is doing yeoman’s work with the blog, exceptional above and beyond for the regular Iran War feature, and your Ann’s Links Of The Day (“tasty and fresh!”) are the icing on the cake!
                   3. Glenda April 10, 2026 at 9:52 pm

                      Thank you, Ann for the Link – “Netherlands preparing military intervention” and “potential Dutch military deployment.”
                      It gave me a much needed Good Laugh.
       2. Steve H. April 10, 2026 at 11:20 am

          A polite disagreement here. Even if nothing material comes of it, it serves as a signalling mechanism. From a link in the article:

          >> At the leading gas exchange in Amsterdam, natural gas traded at €43.70 per megawatt-hour shortly after the market opened, a drop of 18 percent and the lowest price since the start of the Iran war.
          >> The Dutch Cabinet is also deeply concerned about the humanitarian situation in Lebanon, Berendsen said.

          The first is a signal to Dutch citizens, who have been feeling the price of energy increases (natural-gas lows have been at the level of pre-Nordstream highs). The second is a signal to both Iran and US/Isr, like a House-whip counting the votes, and in this way signals to other EU countries re- the post-NATO world. The Dutch Shift on Israel.
          1. Who Cares April 10, 2026 at 3:46 pm

             The gas exchange is not for Dutch citizens. They are talking about the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) which is the largest exchange, physical and futures, for gas in the EU and due to that the primary benchmark for the entire EU.

             Yes price shifts there are felt by the Dutch, so it does for anyone living in Portugal or Poland and every country in between.
       3. hemeantwell April 10, 2026 at 11:52 am

          I am suggesting that some of the links in there have no interest.

          I agree. Ann, I appreciate your efforts, you’ve dug up quite a few nuggets. I’d also like to not have to sift through so much posturing by US/NATO-aligned elites.
          1. Ann April 10, 2026 at 12:51 pm

             Got it. Thx.
             1. Gnocchi April 10, 2026 at 5:22 pm

                Keep em coming Ann

                We don’t have to click through

                Just scanning headlines has value

                And being across what impotent governments are saying and the MSM is parroting is super helpful.

                Thank you again Ann
                1. anahuna April 10, 2026 at 5:53 pm

                   Please don’t worry too much about culling the selections, Ann. I think most of us appreciate a variety of choices, and I’ve gotten really good at scanning through..
                2. ThirtyOne April 10, 2026 at 6:13 pm

                   Just scanning headlines has value

                   This is what I do, if something is not of interest to me, I pass, but I’ve found some links later have relevance.
29. Dingleberry April 10, 2026 at 10:08 am

    If Trump can’t find an off-ramp this weekend, Mr. Market will have a right meltdown next week. 🫠
    1. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 10:15 am

       Not only that. All those interceptor missiles are about gone this month from the US and Israeli arsenals. Guess that Trump and Netanyahu figure that they don’t need them.
    2. tegnost April 10, 2026 at 10:16 am

       I’m amazed he’s floated it for a week, but in the end, the market is owned by a very small sliver of the USA and they can decide that selling could set off an uncontrollable run. Also, AI and algos can probably be programmed to not crash, plus the plunge protection team. The .01% are breaking eggs for their omelette, and it’s not so much they fear losing , they don’t, they are certain losing is not possible.
       1. Samuel Conner April 10, 2026 at 10:28 am

          Search suggests that US equities market cap is around $70 trillion. This is mostly in the hands of institutional investors. Vanguard Group has roughly $10 trillion under management.

          While the wealth distribution is certainly highly skewed toward the top, there is a significant amount in “middle” level investment/retirement accounts. I think that many of these people must be very nervous about their retirement savings.
          1. tegnost April 10, 2026 at 10:48 am

             Sure, 62% of consumers own stocks, and 61% of them are muppets…

             https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/oct/22/goldman-sachs-muppets-greg-smith-clients
             A bit dated but if anything it’s become worse.
             1. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 11:00 am

                You can’t spell Albania or pyramid with out using AI
                ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

                During 1996-97, Albania was convulsed by the dramatic rise and collapse of several huge financial pyramid schemes. This article discusses the crisis and the steps other countries can take to prevent similar disasters.

                The pyramid scheme phenomenon in Albania is important because its scale relative to the size of the economy was unprecedented, and because the political and social consequences of the collapse of the pyramid schemes were profound. At their peak, the nominal value of the pyramid schemes’ liabilities amounted to almost half of the country’s GDP. Many Albanians—about two-thirds of the population—invested in them. When the schemes collapsed, there was uncontained rioting, the government fell, and the country descended into anarchy and a near civil war in which some 2,000 people were killed. Albania’s experience has significant implications for other countries in which conditions are similar to those that led to the schemes’ rise in Albania, and others can learn from the way the Albanian authorities handled—and mishandled—the crisis.

                https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/03/jarvis.htm
                1. Some Guy in Jeju April 11, 2026 at 2:41 am

                   I read a book about this. It was a real Catch-22. Every family in Albania was invested in the pyramid schemes. Every politician (also invested) knew it was unsustainable, but didn’t want to lose their next election for taking food off tables. A slow-motion train wreck with dire consequences
          2. taunger April 10, 2026 at 7:05 pm

             Just discussed cashing out the retirement accounts and distributing among fdic insured accounts with Mrs. taunger. She asked why do you trust fdic?
    3. DD GE April 10, 2026 at 2:00 pm

       Shirley Lites – Heat You Up (Melt You Down)
       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfpLKAhw1J8

       A true 1983 NYC classic!
30. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 10:37 am

    Are we fast approaching the point where Galligula would favor being taken down by Epstein, rather than take the fall for a war gone foul?
31. Steve H. April 10, 2026 at 10:50 am

    Selective Service System

    > Immigrants
    > If you are an 18-25-year-old immigrant man living in the United States, you are required to register with few exceptions. If you are an immigrant seeking citizenship who failed to register prior turning age 26, click the button below.

    This includes illegal immigrants. Which presents a pipeline wherein ICE internment camps can be adapted to training facilities, re: education, as military academies. Service guarantees citizenship!
    1. Li R April 10, 2026 at 4:35 pm

       this is anecdata, but i’ve heard from people on the mexican side of the border (frontier towns) that some of the people detained by ice are being funneled into the military. they are given the choice between jail time and conscription. most choose conscription.
       1. ThirtyOne April 10, 2026 at 6:17 pm

          So, we’re sending the “not their best people” into the military?
    2. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 7:22 pm

       ‘Service guarantees citizenship!’

       Not always. I have read of US vets that have done service overseas that have still been thrown out of the country. No thank you for you service here.
32. Ann April 10, 2026 at 10:53 am

    Vietnam confirms top leader’s visit to China next week

    https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/vietnam-confirms-top-leaders-visit-to-china-next-week-220823

    Pakistan Demands Immediate Halt to Israeli Strikes on Lebanon as Casualties Near 1,500

    https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/906727/pakistan-demands-immediate-halt-to-israeli-strikes-on-lebanon-as-casualties-near-1500

    US consumer prices surge as expected in March

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-consumer-prices-surge-expected-march-2026-04-10/

    JD Vance’s Approval Rating Plunges to New Historic Low

    https://www.newsweek.com/jd-vance-approval-rating-plunges-historic-low-11809549

    Pete Hegseth is a disaster of a defense secretary. It’s no surprise: The former Fox host has misled the public, prayed for violence and clashed with the press. This is not a serious military leader

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/10/pete-hegseth-defense-secretary

    Trump Is Turning America Into a Psychotic State

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/opinion/trump-iran-psychotic-state-institutions.html

    Oversight Democrats call for Melania Trump to testify on Epstein

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5825298-house-oversight-democrats-melania-trump-jeffrey-epstein-testimony/

    Ireland facing ‘very severe’ situation due to protester fuel blockades, PM says

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ireland-facing-very-severe-situation-due-protester-fuel-blockades-pm-says-2026-04-10/

    Trump says Iran’s handling of Strait of Hormuz is ‘not the agreement we have’

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge0xre3d27o
33. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 11:00 am

    There is a stone wall at Gettysburg where the remnants of Picket’s charge slammed into the Union lines and were defeated. This stone wall has now been called the high tide mark of the Confederacy. I was wondering if in years to come the Strait of Hormuz will be called the high tide mark of the American empire. The US will still attack countries like Cuba and Greenland while sanctioning yet more countries. It will still be a major power. But any idea of a preeminent America in the 21st century would have been wrecked as the US has finally come into contact with the hard limits of its powers.
    1. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 11:28 am

       When historians look back in 3293, they’ll be puzzled over why an empire that was never attacked at home by armed forces, was taken down in a war halfway around the world.
       1. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 11:52 am

          Plenty of time and motive for the enemy’s own armed forces to rebel, especially if conscription is brought back …
          1. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 11:54 am

             I’m not sure that Trump Jugend have any idea how to rebel.
             1. JonnyJames April 10, 2026 at 12:55 pm

                Fat, dumb and lazy don’t make for very good crack troops though
                This was from a few years ago, it might be even worse now.
                https://www.ksnblocal4.com/2023/03/20/80-americans-ages-17-24-are-unfit-military-service/
                1. NotTimothyGeithner April 10, 2026 at 3:51 pm

                   Even the “fit” are questionable due to the intensity of highschool sports.
    2. Glen April 10, 2026 at 5:50 pm

       This certainly marks when the empire takes a big lose, but the decline has been apparent for a while now.

       The decline started IN America, not in it’s external empire. America was internally wrecked first, and now the American elites are surprised that internally wrecking America has consequences.

       American elites are REALLY [family blogging] stupid.
    3. eg April 11, 2026 at 7:18 am

       Also announced but failed eastward NATO expansion into Ukraine and Georgia, and the now obvious impossibility of challenging China inside the first island chain.
34. flora April 10, 2026 at 11:24 am

    On the lighter side….
    Jimmy Dore, utube, ~8+ minutes.

    Pakistan HUMILIATED! Prime Minister’s Ceasefire Tweet Was Written By Trump!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlZNpRyni9A
35. GS April 10, 2026 at 11:30 am

    I haven’t seen any 10 point lists that are identical. They are all basically alike but a few (Al Jazeera initial reporting) didn’t have Lebanon. I doubt everyone involved wasn’t on the same page. I think Trump was desperate to find a way out of his deadline and just took the Iranian plan last minute cause was only thing Iran would agree to. Doubt he cared or looked at the details cause they’d knock them out later or maybe intermediaries told each side different things. There is no official 10 point plan that’s been released so there really isn’t one.
    1. Clueless Joe April 10, 2026 at 11:47 am

       For Lebanon, you don’t need any 10 points list. You just need to take Pakistan’s Prime Minister’s official words at face value – since he, as middle-man between Americans and Iranians and the one who announced the ceasefire to the world, declared bluntly that this was a ceasefire between US, Iran, Israel and their allies, covering not only Iran but also including Lebanon.
       Unlike “no enrichment” or “freeing frozen assets”, which he didn’t mention, he clearly stated that the agreement was for a global ceasefire, not just one over the Gulf area. And his proclamation, as has been reported, had been vetted by team Trump.
       These morons just made their own key guy in Pakistan (since it’s obvious the US played their hand at removing Khan and replacing him with Sharif) look like an idiot or a liar. He most probably loved it and is begging for more public humiliation…
    2. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 7:26 pm

       Trump probably went along with those 10 points and figured that at any negotiations, that he would dump them and go with his own 15 point plan which is in reality an Iranian surrender plan.
36. Yalt April 10, 2026 at 11:34 am

    I guess we’re about to find out just how desperately the US wants these “negotiations.”

    @mb_ghalibaf
    Two of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be implemented: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations.

    These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin.
37. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 11:57 am

    FAFO = First Attack Failed Obviously
38. ThirtyOne April 10, 2026 at 12:00 pm

    NEW: All preparations for the talks in Islamabad are complete

    No sign of the Iranians yet.
    https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30765#

    Any guesses on the news networks theme music choices? I’m going with dark and tense.
    1. ArvidMartensen April 10, 2026 at 5:22 pm

       Don’t the Iranians want to be assassinated on the way? Or on the way back. Or meeting in Islamabad. Or meeting in Tehran. Or at their hotel? Or in their homes with their families.

       Spoilsports!
39. Tom Stone April 10, 2026 at 12:11 pm

    As far as Civil War in the USA, I don’t think that will happen.
    Chaos certainly, something as organized as out last Civil War doesn’t seem likely.
    60% of american Households could not afford a sudden $400 expense when this War started, the price increases and shortages that are now inevitable will break them and when 200,000,000 Americans become desperate it will get messy.
    Keep in mind that the Rule of Law is gone, that the only thing this administration has left is force because legitimacy has been pissed away.
    The organs of State Security will do what they always do to keep the rabble in line and because they do not have what it takes the Military will be called in.
    Hoo Boy, talk about opening a can of worms and discovering it is full of Krait…
    1. Wukchumni April 10, 2026 at 12:16 pm

       It looks like around 128% of Americans own a gun, were we all to have just 1 gat.
40. Jason Boxman April 10, 2026 at 12:21 pm

    Consumer sentiment hits record low, inflation fears rise amid Iran war (CNBC)

    Oh?

    Consumer confidence plunged to a record low in April as fears mounted over rising energy prices and the broader impact of the Iran war, according to a University of Michigan survey.

    The drop in sentiment coincided with a sharp spike in inflation expectations, with respondents seeing prices up 4.8% in a year from now, a full percentage point rise from the March reading.

    Probably a vast understatement of inflation.

    Trump cannot win on the battlefield here; Iran controls the strait. That can’t be changed. Trump can’t concede to Iran’s terms, and Trump cannot deliver Israel. I fear we’re going to need a Depression in this country to resolve this issue, ultimately. Iran’s ten points are a bitter pill to swallow indeed, and this existing crop of elite might be unable to do so.

    This isn’t just going to be a strategic defeat, it might be The Strategic Defeat, with concomitant economic catastrophe. It’s impossible in the moment to really understand all the ramifications; we don’t even know exactly what they’re all going to be. This kind of extreme resource shock is going to reveal all kinds of tightly knit systems and unexpected failure modes.

    And American elite lack the capacity to plan for or react to this.

    There’s no Taco that’s gonna re-open the strait.
    1. Joe Renter April 10, 2026 at 12:33 pm

       You are right about the catastrophe. I am trying to figure out on how to prepare. It can be years before a new normal is established. Can’t put the genie back in the bottle. Myself, I think I need to back away from all the latest news that is coming out. My blood pressure has been going up. Maybe less coffee and more exercise? At least we can hopefully find a silver lining in all of this. They must be one or more.
    2. EnigmaWrappedInBacon April 10, 2026 at 12:39 pm

       This CNBC story about declining consumer confidence is one of the lead stories on Drudge right now

       https://drudgereport.com/?NF=1

       This kind of news is self-perpetuating. The more people hear about lack of consumer confidence the more likely they are to feel less confident themselves.
       1. NotTimothyGeithner April 10, 2026 at 12:43 pm

          The Confidence Fairy won’t change dire economic statistics.
41. Ann April 10, 2026 at 12:47 pm

    The world’s 500 richest people made more than a quarter trillion on Wednesday as volatile markets react to fragile Iran war ceasefire

    https://fortune.com/2026/04/09/richest-billionaires-quarter-trillion-markets-iran-war-ceasefire/

    US economy grew a sluggish 0.5% in fourth quarter, government says, downgrading previous estimate

    https://apnews.com/article/economy-gdp-jobs-iran-dcb9dbdea745ddf15bea9b8f79ee308c

    Kuwait says Iranian attack hit National Guard facilities, caused injuries

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kuwait-says-iranian-attack-hit-national-guard-facilities-caused-injuries-2026-04-10/

    Trump’s peace board faces cash crunch, stalling Gaza plan, sources say

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trumps-peace-board-faces-cash-crunch-stalling-gaza-plan-sources-say-2026-04-10/

    US has let in 4,499 refugees since October – all but three were South African

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g89kkvenqo

    There’s growing disquiet in the military. The Iran war made it worse

    https://www.npr.org/2026/04/10/nx-s1-5771612/military-iran-war-trump-conscientious-objector
42. Jason Boxman April 10, 2026 at 2:11 pm

    Iran sets preconditions; That game works for both sides!

    A top Iranian official has issued what appeared to be a new demand a day before peace talks were set to begin between the United States and Iran, saying that negotiations could not start until Iran’s “blocked assets” overseas were released.

    The official, Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, did not say what was meant by blocked assets, and it was unclear whether this demand could derail the talks to end the war. Iranian state funds overseas have been frozen in the past as a result of sanctions imposed by the United States and other Western nations.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/10/world/iran-war-trump-israel-lebanon/a-senior-iranian-official-says-blocked-assets-must-be-released-before-talks-with-the-us-can-begin?smid=url-share
    1. Yalt April 10, 2026 at 2:27 pm

       Related to this about three hours ago from MES? which I haven’t seen anything about elsewhere….

       NEW: A South Korean representative and Qatari bank executives are scrambling behind the scenes to release $6 Billion dollars worth of frozen Iranian funds held by South Korea in Qatari banks

       The frozen assets are a result of U.S. financial sanctions, and Iran wants them released immediately.

       ed: Looks like these were the funds in question, per a follow-up at the same site, and the US has authorized their release.
       1. Polar Socialist April 10, 2026 at 2:38 pm

          It’s almost as if USA has a lot to do to earn back some of the trust needed to go into any kind of negotiations.

          As US promises and agreements are practically worthless, it makes sense for Iran to keep demanding for tangible actions each step of the way.
       2. Pearl Rangefinder April 10, 2026 at 2:41 pm

          Bucking illegal American sanctions is a good test from the Iranian point-of-view for separating the countries that mean business vs the countries blowing diplomatic hot air.
       3. Louis Fyne April 10, 2026 at 2:53 pm

          No, MidEastSpectator (among many Twitter/Telegram-ers) issue overly dramatic takes and rarely gives cites. Presumably in a rush to get as many eyeballs/engagements, even though it hurts their credibility in the long-run.

          Until I see a credible cite, I’m skeptical it’s a real interpretation of events.
       4. urdsama April 10, 2026 at 3:01 pm

          Has anyone seen details on an attack by Israel on an Iranian nuclear plant? Araghchi stated something like this happened last night. I thought it was a live (or at least current) Q&A session but now I have no idea.

          Seem like talks are off if this is true.
43. AG April 10, 2026 at 2:13 pm

    MOON OF ALABAMA

    War On Iran: – Selected Writings And Reports
    Selected writings of interest on the War on Iran:
    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/04/war-on-iran-selected-writings.html

    p.s. Perhaps this is just a momentary over-reaction of mine – the more I read about Israel using nukes the less I believe it.
    A bit like the US projection of incredible military power revealing itself more and more as just that, a projection only.
44. hereweare April 10, 2026 at 2:33 pm

    U.S. negotiators to ask Iran to release detained Americans Washington Post
    “The request for the Americans’ release may be delayed if the talks between President Donald Trump’s team and Iran prove difficult, according to people briefed on the plans.”
45. urdsama April 10, 2026 at 2:37 pm

    According to the live news conference, Iran FM Abbas Araghchi is going to Moscow tonight for talks with Putin tomorrow morning.

    What does this say about the “peace talks” in Pakistan?
    1. urdsama April 10, 2026 at 2:44 pm

       Did Israel hit an Iranian nuclear plant last night? Araghchi is talking about this now, crossing a major red line.

       Sounds like current talks are dead…still trying to pick details out from the Q&A session going on right now.
       1. JonnyJames April 10, 2026 at 2:58 pm

          As Wilkerson and Johnson have said, the talks will go nowhere, if they happen at all.
          Apparently Aragchi said no to Witkof and Kushner, but the pres. is sending them anyway?
          1. urdsama April 10, 2026 at 5:31 pm

             Well, I feel foolish. Need to be more careful when looking for updates since whatever I saw was not at all recent.

             Now I wonder when that video was recorded…
46. MaryLand April 10, 2026 at 2:50 pm

    If you have stress (who doesn’t?!) you might find some relief by watching relaxing videos. I find watching watercolor painters and other painters on YouTube to be relaxing. Some people even watch lawn mowing videos or dog grooming videos as stress relief. I watch embroidery videos (I don’t do embroidery) and even nail polish artists online. Nature videos are of course helpful as is gardening, and just going outdoors and walking around. Many people take a walk during their lunch hour as having a change of scenery is very helpful. Some do crafts or cooking/baking as therapy. Take a shower, organize a drawer, talk to a friend. Listening to music helps almost all the time. Wishing everyone well.
    1. JM April 10, 2026 at 4:36 pm

       I haven’t done this in a while but during the lockdowns in 2020 I got into watching HD footage of trains, looking out the front window at the landscape. There were some really nice ones in the Alps and rural Japan as I remember.

       Getting out in nature – gardening or hiking say – is of course a good option.

       Creative relaxation like you listed: crafts, cooking/baking, art, etc. don’t get mentioned enough. Make “bad” art about the crazy world and our degenerate leaders!

       And one thing I’ve been trying to do – take a break from news. Check once or twice and leave it at that. I have no control over this, so getting twisted up about every in and out isn’t worth it.
47. ChrisFromGA April 10, 2026 at 2:52 pm

    Vance, Witless, and the grifter go to Pakistan … which analogy works better:

    The three stooges?
    Alvin, Simon, and Theodore?

    Could also be the premise for a joke … A VP, a witless negotiator, and a grifter go into a bar …

    Something tells me that these three stooges are gonna have a “Bad Day” in Pakistan:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Khq4ZOgpZg0&list=RDKhq4ZOgpZg0
    1. Yalt April 10, 2026 at 3:18 pm

       While we’re waiting to see if the Iranians even show, how about Beckett?

       KUSHNER:
       Let’s wait and see what he says.
       WITKOFF:
       Who?
       KUSHNER:
       Ghalibaf.
       WITKOFF:
       Good idea.
       KUSHNER:
       Let’s wait till we know exactly how we stand.
       WITKOFF:
       Onthe other hand it might be better to strike the iron before it freezes.
       KUSHNER:
       I’m curious to hear what he has to offer. Then we’ll take it or leave it.
       WITKOFF:
       What exactly did we ask him for?
       KUSHNER:
       Were you not there?
       WITKOFF:
       I can’t have been listening.
       KUSHNER:
       Oh . . . Nothing very definite.
       1. Late Introvert April 10, 2026 at 10:36 pm

          Well done!
48. Anthony Martin April 10, 2026 at 3:04 pm

    Decapitation strikes do not necessarily have to be physical. IMO, Iran strategy has been to target three key nodes; 1) The Arabian Pennisula, 2) Israel, and 3) the Decision making capability of the US/Israeli coalition by operationally encircling each & constricting each with the intent to collapse each of their ability to functionally resist. Iran, apparently, relies on a moasic system of defense. In the event of leadership losses, this allows for their organic replacement. In comparison the US/Israeli coaltion has been pursuing a policy of terror bombing of civilian infrastruction and of assasination of key leaders with the intent to destabilize Iran (the favorite doctrines of Hegseth, Israelis, & the former SS). Also, the US has devolved into a state with power centralized in the Executive Branch and with a cult of personality, as demonstrated by the Trump Administration. To wit, what happens if Trump becomes incapacitated (who & what replaces him) and with Trump’s inherent personality and impulsivity, can Trump be ‘manipulated’ by an outside source to the point where he is so confused, bewildered, & paralyzed that he is unable to effectively solve complex problems without blundering. My argument suggests that the the operation of the Straits of Hormuz is the blunt instrument that the Iranians are using to diminish Trump’s decision making capacity ( the blows come in the form of loss of power & prestige, inflation, gas pump prices, etc). The key question becomes if Trump is numbed pyschologically, how long can he be propped before the proverbial excrement hits the fan?
    1. Samuel Conner April 10, 2026 at 3:36 pm

       > unable to effectively solve complex problems without blundering

       Me thinks one could be forgiven for suspecting that this was already the state of affairs prior to Feb 28.

       This does not conflict with your proposal that executive decision-making has worsened since then.
       1. hk April 10, 2026 at 10:33 pm

          I think there is something to this: while Trump might seem random and erratic in his behavior, there has been a method to his madness: he’ll talk loudly like a madman, then does a sudden turn in an unexpected direction that affords him a way out with some measure of advantage as his “opponents” (defined broadly) are left confused. The ceasefire talk had all the elements: everyone was confused by the sudden reversal of the rhetoric, which might have reset the playing field to a significant degree, except his two “opponents” were completely unfazed. Netanyahu knew that he could press his advantage by setting Lebanon on fire and the Iranians didn’t miss a beat responding by closing the Straits. So everone was confused…except for the two parties the whole antic was aimed at, the Israeli and Iranisn leaderships and Trump himself wound up being “decapitated,” so to speak.
49. JonnyJames April 10, 2026 at 3:52 pm

    Article from Trita Parsi today.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/4/10/is-trumps-iran-ceasefire-already-doomed

    “…All of this argues for tempered expectations. Yet even if the talks collapse – and even if Israel resumes attacks on Iran – it does not automatically follow that the US would be drawn back into war…”

    Yes, but more likely will be the US and the rest of the Epstein Coalition will continue to send supplies, arms, armmo, fuel etc. to Israel to continue. Iran will not likely fall for that ruse.

    So yes, I don’t see the “talks” going anywhere. The US is acting in bad faith as usual.

    It will be interesting to see if Aragchi will allow Witless and Sheister to be in the same room, if the talks proceed at all
    1. Yalt April 10, 2026 at 5:15 pm

       Al-Jazeera reports that these will be “proximity talks”; the two delegations will be in separate rooms and Pakistani officials will act as messengers. So I think the answer to your question might be ‘no’.
       1. chris April 10, 2026 at 8:13 pm

          Given the given, as Yves and others like to say, I’d suggest the Iranians are located in a secret bunker where they are as protected as can be. I would never trust anyone from the Israeli or American delegation to not attempt something. I hate that my country has become this disgusting thing. We murder school children and demand the world accept our rationale.
50. urdsama April 10, 2026 at 4:40 pm

    Scott Ritter on Judge Napolitano saying Iran has to give, and will give up, the nuclear weapon option. If not that will be a mistake on their part. In light of very recent events, and the current status of North Korea, how in the family blog can he take this position?

    Is it just me, or is he a bit off on his analysis as of late?
    1. Doggo April 10, 2026 at 5:09 pm

       Difference between N. Korea and Iran is that N. Korea does not have a psychopathic neighbor who hates them with demonic vitrol and believes that they are subhuman trash to be wiped out.

       Iran does have such a neighbor. And that neighbor has 100 to 150 nukes, is just itching to use them. If Iran actually announced that they are building a nuke, there is near 100% certainty that Israel will nuke them.

       And Scott is right, Iran already demonstrated that they can destroy Israel and all of GCC countries just with their ballistic missiles and drones. They do not need nukes. A few dozen missiles and drones each, on Dimona and other power plants and desalinization plants, and the entire middle east becomes an unlivable wasteland. I think the now-deceased Khamenei was wise and ultimately proven right.
       1. JonnyJames April 10, 2026 at 6:21 pm

          Re; Iran nuclear weapon, Nima Alkhorshid, prof. Marandi have also said that Iran doesn’t need a nuclear deterrent. They have demonstrated the ability to control Hormuz, and the ability to inflict major damage. The control of Hormuz is the equivalent deterrent

          On the other hand, we have prof.Ted Postol claiming that Iran has already developed a nuclear weapon and if I recall, Alastair Crooke said if they havent’ already they could put one together in short order.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtUobr7xGz4&t=4s
       2. urdsama April 10, 2026 at 6:33 pm

          Disagree on both points.

          The key difference is North Korea already has nuclear weapons.

          And having nuclear weapons is not to push against Israel, but the US.

          This is why Ritter is way off the mark. If Iran had those weapons already, the US and Israel wouldn’t have done what they did. Not because Iran could destroy the US, but because Iran could turn the entire Middle East oil producing region into a radioactive wasteland.
          1. jrkrideau April 10, 2026 at 10:58 pm

             Iran could turn the entire Middle East oil producing region into a radioactive wasteland.

             However poisoning most of your own citizens might be thought to not be an optimal outcome.
       3. hk April 10, 2026 at 6:56 pm

          Iran CAN say that they already have a nuke, that they are mounted on their Khorramshahr missiles, and they will be launched to Israel the minute suspected Israeli nukes are heading to Iran. I think there’s enough technical wherewithal that they can skip “we are developing nukes” stage altogether.
          1. Paradox of Unrealized Power April 10, 2026 at 10:14 pm

             Not only can they skip the “we are developing nukes” stage, I believe that they can probably skip the first “crude” fission stage and go straight to developing thermonuclear bombs. That is one reason that when people say that Iran has only enough HEU to make a few bombs, they may be greatly understating how many bombs (and the yields) that Iran potentially has at its disposal
       4. Late Introvert April 10, 2026 at 11:34 pm

          That is a very well reasoned argument that I have not heard expressed quite so succintly.

          They do not need nukes. Let’s hope that is true, it gives me a weird sense of hope.
51. johnnyme April 10, 2026 at 4:57 pm

    Pakistan confirms arrival of Iranian delegation

    Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry has confirmed the arrival in Islamabad of the Iranian delegation, including Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and FM Araghchi.

    It said the officials were received by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and other high-ranking Pakistani officials.
52. turtle April 10, 2026 at 5:05 pm

    Al Jazeera is re-reporting the following (https://aje.news/8znvvy?update=4481283):

    An Iranian delegation has arrived in Islamabad for talks with US, Iran’s state-owned TV channel reported.

    Here is list of some of the figures in the delegation:

    Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
    Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
    Secretary of the Supreme National Defence Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian
    Central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati
    Former IRGC commander Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr

    Several members of Iran’s parliament have also joined the delegation, according to Iranian media.
    1. Polar Socialist April 10, 2026 at 6:16 pm

       I think Ahmadian is the former Secretary of SNDC, Pezeshkian made him the head of Iranian Headquaters for National and Strategic Projects Development in 2025. He’s also a member of the Expediency Discernment Council.

       The “former IRGC commander” Zolghadr is the new Secretary of SNDC.

       Of those five men, four are IRGC alumni or current members, and at least three are veterans of the Iran-Iraq war. Also it looks like the who’s who of the current Iranian government, to the extent that they don’t really need to call Tehran to reach a decision…
       1. TimH April 10, 2026 at 6:27 pm

          I see US/Isr itching to take out the delegation.
          1. DGE April 11, 2026 at 12:44 am

             I was wondering about that, and Israel does have the power projection ability to perform a targeted strike in Islamabad, 3.5 thousand kilometres from Tel Aviv – in principle.

             This is the kind of thing an LLM works well for, by the way. A specific question about aircraft and a goal. I asked Claude what flight path and aircraft would be the surest chance of success. It said that assuming Azerbaijani cooperation, an Eitan drone (7,400 km range) via the Northern Route (Azerbaijan – Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan) could do it in terms of distance only.

             Turkmenistan and Afghanistan have no air defence worth mentioning. Pakistan does, a layered, Chinese-supplied modern one, but a bunch of Eitans could each fire several Delilah missiles and decoys from the border, which would put the Pakistani capital within their range. Apparently, Pakistani AD performed poorly against Indian countermeasures during Operation Sindoor last year, so it’s not as good as on paper.

             Before anyone chastises me for using an LLM: the above are hard facts – ranges, countries – without AI interpretation or commentary. The AI just saved me the trouble of looking up UAV and missile capabilities in Wikipedia. I was the one who conceived of the Northern Route. For what it’s worth, Claude blabbed a lot more about the odds of success and that’s not important, but if you’re curious, it estimated them as very low.

             Now, to what I think, no longer involving any LLM. Pakistan is a nuclear power and has stated that it would nuke Israel if it nuked a muslim country. I know Israel would love to kill the delegation given how high-ranking it is. It would end all hope of an agreement. Maybe enough to risk a targeted strike at the Pakistani capital.

             But I don’t think it will. It could try to assassinate people that piss it off, like Araghchi or Ghalibaf, using old-fashioned methods like planting bombs, but the meeting was arranged on very short notice, so I doubt the Mossad could’ve set such a major operation up this quickly. But what do I know.
             1. The Rev Kev April 11, 2026 at 1:04 am

                Claude forgot the fact that Israel is buddies with Modi’s India so could launch an operation from India.
                1. DGE April 11, 2026 at 1:15 am

                   No, I was the one who didn’t suggest anything of the kind to it. I just asked what the most plausible attack route and aircraft would be from Israel.

                   Is Modi still chummy with Israel at this point, though? I heard he got backlash for the state visit right before Epstein Fury started, what with how exposed India is to the Hormuz chokehold. If Israel suggested such an operation to Modi, I’d reckon he’d tell them to go play in traffic.
    2. Yalt April 10, 2026 at 7:37 pm

       Marandi too, apparently. Or at least he’s in Islamabad.
       1. ThirtyOne April 10, 2026 at 7:41 pm

          And some guests.
          1. chris April 10, 2026 at 8:10 pm

             Impressive display of narrative attack from the Iranians. It seems they’ve achieved full spectrum dominance in meme-space. That collection of dead kid backpacks will gather the sympathy of the world. The Lego videos will continue to enrage the American delegation who lack the ability to feel sorrow for their atrocities.
    3. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 7:56 pm

       The Pakistanis had better make sure that Mossad does not try something through their buddies in India. You can be sure that they are thinking about it.
       1. chris April 10, 2026 at 8:03 pm

          It’s astounding that we can even think that. What a mess we’ve made when the only purpose for negotiations and diplomacy is to gather our enemies in one place to be killed. If the Iranian delegation is able to leave without being assassinated, drugged, bugged, or mugged, I’ll consider it a victory for humankind in these dark days.
       2. DGE April 11, 2026 at 1:47 am

          The meeting was announced late on Tuesday. Even with India’s cooperation, for the Mossad to gather all the needed intel and deploy a team in four days… if they pull it off, it will beat Operation Entebbe in terms of logistical prowess.
       3. hk April 11, 2026 at 2:30 am

          I have trouble imagining India joining Israel doing dirty trick like that, for three reasons.

          While India might be friendly towards Israel, especially Modi and his swell mob, they have never really been hostile towards Iran either. Quite the contrary, there’d been a lot of cooperation and I doubt Indians will want to blow that.

          In fact, India is pretty heavily invested in a peaceful outcome, not only because of their dependence on resources coming out of the Gulf, but because they have quite a lot invested in Iran itself and North-South corridor, too, I believe. One could be cynical and say that, maybe, Indians could try to cash in with the next government–but we should all know by now that the Islamic Republic is staying. An assassination plot is a petty short term terrorist act that could only cause chaos at most and, more likely, just a lot of revulsion.

          I’m guessing here, but, at professional/institutional level, are Indian politicians, military, and intel services so “owned” exclusively by Israel? Most of the Western countries don’t have counterweights to Israel. India does, notwithstanding close ties–for example Russia. If India’s own interests don’t stop cooperation with Israel, there are external brakes, too.

          If Israel tries something funny, I think they’ll be on their own.
53. Ann April 10, 2026 at 5:10 pm

    Spaniards see Trump as the greatest threat to world peace, ahead of Putin

    https://english.elpais.com/spain/2026-04-10/spaniards-see-trump-as-the-greatest-threat-to-world-peace-ahead-of-putin.html

    “Is Israel Blackmailing President Trump?” Tucker Carlson Fires Back With Explosive Newsletter – Full text

    https://www.latintimes.com/israel-blackmailing-president-trump-tucker-carlson-fires-back-explosive-newsletter-full-text-596506

    Brazil seizes over 1,100 weapons and 1.5 tons of drugs from US, says official

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-seizes-over-1100-weapons-15-tons-drugs-us-says-official-2026-04-10/

    Netanyahu requests delay in corruption trial testimony

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-requests-delay-his-corruption-trial-testimony-2026-04-10/

    Trump promised mass pardons for his top aides before he leaves office

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-pardons-top-aides-b2955583.html

    500 Irish petrol stations could have ‘no fuel by end of the day’

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy814wypp5go

    European airports could face jet fuel shortages within three weeks

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/10/european-airports-jet-fuel-shortages-flights-iran

    Netanyahu removes Spain from Gaza coordination centre over ‘hostility’

    https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/4/10/netanyahu-removes-spain-from-gaza-coordination-centre-over-hostility

    Trump says military is ‘loading up the ships’ if peace talks with Iran go south in Pakistan

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5825822-trump-threatens-iran-military-strikes/

    CDC Head Blocks Release of Findings Showing Strong COVID Vax Effectiveness

    https://truthout.org/articles/cdc-head-blocks-release-of-findings-showing-strong-covid-vax-effectiveness/

    Former Russian deputy defense minister is sentenced to 19 years for corruption

    https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/former-russian-deputy-defense-minister-sentenced-19-years-131918683

    Judge Rejects Hegseth’s Second Attempt to Restrict Reporters at Pentagon

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/business/media/judge-hegseth-pentagon-reporters-rules.html

    UK preparing new plan to ready nation for war

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-preparing-new-plan-to-ready-nation-for-war-13530181

    Cuba to Let Russian Firms Run Industrial Production Amid Energy Crisis

    https://united24media.com/latest-news/cuba-to-let-russian-firms-run-industrial-production-amid-energy-crisis-17822
54. Sibiriak April 10, 2026 at 6:03 pm

    In his latest video (12:56), Alexander Mercouris reports on an important new Iranian analysis:
    —————————————————————————————————————————–

    The Iranians themselves have now published what they say is an analysis of the situation in the Gulf of Hormuz. And let me stress this is an entirely Iranian produced document. But what it says is this: “Why no power can undermine Iran’s eternal dominance over the Strait of Hormuz. ”

    And it continues, “the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway nestled between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is not merely a geographical passageway or a shipping lane on the world map to the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is a strategically vital waterway that forms the pulse of the global energy economy and simultaneously a potent asset for the Islamic Republic to fundamentally reshape the balance of power in the Persian Gulf and around the world.”

    So, the Iranians can see, they now know that control of the Strait of Hormuz, the kind of control that they are exercising enables them to reshape fundamentally the balance of power in the Persian Gulf and around the world.

    And the analysis goes on to say, “Iran seeks not merely to protect or monitor the Strait of Hormuz, but to exercise absolute intelligent and legitimate control that in the short term applies economic pressure on any adversary to force it into retreat, negotiation or acceptance of Iranian terms, and in the long term, to convert this control into permanent and inexhaustible strategic advantage. This unchallenged authority on the strategic chokepoint which carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade includes regulating maritime traffic collecting passage tolls, influencing global supply chains, and reconfiguring power dynamics in the region in alignment with the axis of resistance.” In other words, in alignment with the interests and desires of Iran and its regional allies.

    And then the article continues, “that backed by immutable geographical realities, international legal frameworks, precise economic data, and Iran’s asymmetric military capabilities, we examine how no military threats nor diplomatic pressure can affect this fundamental and unalterable reality. Iran is uniquely positioned to exert absolute control over the northern and most critical part of the strait with the coastline with its coastline stretching more than 1,600 kilometers along the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. This extensive coastline includes not only mainland shores but also numerous strategic islands that serve as natural strong points. Unlike the Suez Canal or the Panama Canal, the Strait of Hormuz is the only natural mandatory route for crude oil, LNG, and chemical products exiting the Persian Gulf on route to the Indian Ocean and global markets. No viable alternative to bypass Iran’s control exists.”

    So, that’s what the Iranians are now saying. They’re saying that they have this chokehold over the global economy. They’re going to exert it indefinitely. They’re going to levy tolls. They’re going to control shipping. They understand the enormous power that control of the Strait of Hormuz gives them. They don’t believe that there is any military force on earth that can deprive them of it. And they intend to retain control of it indefinitely. And that apparently is one of the conditions they’re going to make in the negotiations.

    So there you have it. The Iranians have discovered this extraordinary source of power, this extraordinary source of wealth. This has been one of the outcomes. In fact, it’s been in some respects the single most important outcome of the 40-day war that was fought after the 28th of February.

    And they’re never going to surrender it again because why would they?
    —————————————————————————————————————————————

    Full article here:
    https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/04/10/766586/why-no-matter-can-undermine-iran-eternal-dominance-over-strait-hormuz
55. nigel rooney April 10, 2026 at 6:31 pm

    Sohaibpress has Iranian Officials Araghchi and Qalibaf as having arrived in Islamabad.
    https://t.me/s/Sohaibpress.
56. ThirtyOne April 10, 2026 at 6:32 pm

    Trump kicked the can of whoop-ass so hard it circled the earth and smacked him upside the head.
57. Tom Stone April 10, 2026 at 6:43 pm

    Hegseth drinks, there are times when he has clearly had a few drinks before appearing for the cameras and there are reports of him over indulging going back years.
    I suspect he is just smart enough to understand how unqualified he is, and finds that realization
    uncomfortable at times.
    Dull normal and a drinker.
    He does know the difference between Shit and Shinola, he uses Shinola to hide the bald spots and eats Shit every time he talks to Trump.
58. Ann April 10, 2026 at 7:35 pm

    NATO chief says world is safer under Trump following U.S. strikes on Iran

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/nato-chief-says-world-absolutely-safer-trump

    China Imposes Unprecedented 40-Day Aviation Ban Near Shanghai, ETInfra

    https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/aviation/china-imposes-unprecedented-40-day-aviation-ban-near-shanghai/130162328

    Iran Unable to Find Mines in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/us/politics/iran-mines-strait.html
59. Timmy April 10, 2026 at 7:55 pm

    Iran is unable to find the mines they placed in the Hormouz Strait when the conflict started, according to the NY Times

    Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.

    Iran used small boats to mine the strait last month, soon after the United States and Israel began their war against the country. The mines, plus the threat of Iranian drone and missile attacks, slowed the number of oil tankers and other vessels passing through the strait to a trickle, driving up energy prices and providing Iran with its best leverage in the war.

    Iran left a path through the strait open, allowing ships that pay a toll to pass through.

    Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has issued warnings that ships could collide with sea mines, and semiofficial news organizations have published charts showing safe routes.

    Those routes are limited in large part because Iran mined the strait haphazardly, U.S. officials said. It is not clear that Iran recorded where it put every mine. And even when the location was recorded, some mines were placed in a way that allowed them to drift or move, according to the officials.
    1. The Rev Kev April 10, 2026 at 8:09 pm

       Unintentionally hilarious. The Iranians are playing a game of Schrödinger’s mines here. They might be there – or they might not be there. Who can say? Such a mystery. So ships had better use the designated Iranian channels when sailing just to be safe. And will that $2 million toll be in Yuan or Bitcoin?
    2. hereweare April 11, 2026 at 4:05 am

       Translation: Iran would just love to unconditionally surrender, but its technological backwardness and military incompetence are getting in the way. According to US officials.
60. Ben Panga April 10, 2026 at 7:56 pm

    86 strong Iranian delegation in Islamabad. Heavy on politicians, light on IRGC.

    The “diplomacy faction”

    —-

    Israel and Lebanon [not Hezbollah!] announce ceasefire. Colour me sceptical about this.

    —-

    Presumably the US remains agreement incapable, so let’s see what happens next. The US can easily get a win with “no nuclear weapons” which Iran would agree to as it’s a non-issue. Is there a way to get something Iran can accept? Are they Lucy-proofed?

    —-
    [ Seemingly] The 4 preconditions that Trump accepted:
    1. The release of Iran’s frozen assets
    2. A ceasefire in Lebanon
    3. Limitation on passage through the Strait of Hormuz to 15 vessels per day, with transit payment
    4. The prohibition of any redeployment of U.S. forces and equipments
    1. Paradox of Unrealized Power April 10, 2026 at 9:37 pm

       For a really crazy thought, I wonder if the US (not now, but within the next few years) will both be forced to normalize diplomatic relations with Iran, and (even crazier thought) need to provide further concessions in order to have this reciprocated.

       But just to be clear, I don’t really understand international diplomacy. I have a much better grounding on the military aspects, and it is astoundingly clear that the US military is unable to enforce State Dept objectives against any of the great powers, and will be unable to enforce them for a very long time.
61. Mikel April 10, 2026 at 8:34 pm

    “Satellite images below show that after ~40 Days, this rather exposed base remains almost UNSCRATCHED

    Now bear in mind; this base was allegedly targeted by B-2 & B-1 bomber raids with GBU-72…”

    And this morning the NY Times had a series of photos showing all the schools, universities, and hospitals hit in Iran.

    Madness.
62. Sibiriak April 10, 2026 at 9:09 pm

    President Donald Trump has insisted that Washington doesn’t need a “backup plan” if negotiations with Tehran fail, because the Strait of Hormuz will be open “one way or the other.”

    “They’re militarily defeated. And now we’re going to open up the Gulf, with or without them… But that will be open. And I think it’s going to go pretty quickly. And if it doesn’t, we’ll be able to finish it off. One way or the other,” the US president told journalists before boarding Air Force One. “

    “You don’t need a backup plan. Their military is defeated … You know, we’ve degraded just about everything,” he insisted.
    1. frank April 10, 2026 at 9:43 pm

       A reassurance for the markets that the oil will continue to flow.
63. Ann April 10, 2026 at 9:59 pm

    Trump Threatens CNN For Very Basic Reporting On His Shitty, Unpopular War

    https://www.techdirt.com/2026/04/10/trump-threatens-cnn-for-very-basic-reporting-on-his-shitty-unpopular-war/

    Polls Show Even Republicans Are Souring On Israel

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/polls-show-even-republicans-are-souring-on-israel.html

    To Fill Air Traffic Controller Shortage, F.A.A. Turns to Gamers

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/us/politics/air-traffic-controller-gamer.html

    Trump Weighs Ultimate Gift to For-Profit Insurance Industry: Medicare Privatization

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/medicare-advantage-default-enrollment

    Whatever This Is in Iran, It Isn’t Victory

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2026/04/whatever-this-is-in-iran-it-isnt-victory/

    Why is anyone surprised by the US and Israel’s latest war? It’s only what the world allowed them to do in Gaza

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/10/us-israel-war-iran-lebanon-western-silence-gaza

    Canada pushes to join U.K.-Italy-Japan advanced fighter jet project

    https://financialpost.com/financial-times/canada-pushes-to-join-fighter-jet-project
    1. Santiago B April 11, 2026 at 3:38 am

       thanks again, Ann. A lot of mainstream sources but you’re doing a great job aggregating while the Asian and UK/EU NC staff is (justifiably and very hopefully asleep).
    2. hereweare April 11, 2026 at 4:22 am

       Trump Threatens CNN For Very Basic Reporting On His Shitty, Unpopular War

       The Iranian Security Council issued a list of ten demands that, if agreed to, would leave Iran in a stronger position than when this whole idiocy started:

       Some news outlets, like CNN, simply reported directly on what Iran had claimed. This, as you might expect, upset Donald Trump and his top FCC censor Brendan Carr, who are now threatening an “investigation” of CNN for simply repeating what was publicly stated:

       Not mentioned (of course) is the fact that Fox News also reported the Iran statement, yet avoided being called out by the president:
64. flora April 10, 2026 at 10:30 pm

    Prof. John Mearsheimer on Breaking Points. utube, ~32+ minutes.

    John Mearsheimer: TRUMP’S ONLY OPTION IS SURRENDER

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9wXqYaAJOQ
65. lampoon April 10, 2026 at 11:58 pm

    Another interesting post by Steven Newbury, in which he continues with his prediction that the Hormuz disruption will trigger a deflationary collapse. He argues that the current oil based supply chain is fragile due to decades of ‘neoliberal’ hyper-financialisation and just-in-time logistics. Pursuing hyper-efficiency has eliminated physical redundancy. Financialisation greases the global supply chain via an ever expanding eurodollar market that ‘simulate[s] liquidity and bridge[s] the gap between material constraints and continuous growth.’
    He says that Trump’s tariffs engineer an acute dollar shortage by siphoning eurodollars out of the international market, driving funding costs to unsustainable heights. When that is combined with a severe supply shock, buyers will lack the dollar liquidity to bid up the price of scarce energy, and their purchasing power will completely collapse. The US will not be insulated from this, because it will lack the supply of heavier crude to distill diesel, which will also lead it to hoard whatever diesel it can make. Allied nations will be severed from both the financial liquidity and the biophysical flows required to maintain basic industrial functions.
    “At that moment the financial mechanism violently inverts. … The market does not inflate, it breaks. The lack of dollars will force a massive involuntary deleveraging across Western economies, triggering a crash in asset prices and frozen credit markets. … A managed contraction is no longer possible because there are no buffers left to absorb the transition.” He seems to think this is now baked in. Note that the first comment questions the financialisation portion of the argument. Newbury has a follow on post about that but it is still behind a paywall.
    https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-brittle-fracture-why-the-hormuz
66. Acacia April 11, 2026 at 2:23 am

    Update from Japan w.r.t. the incoming supply chain collapse:

    This is a real disaster. Tajima Roofing, the top domestic market share holder, has halted orders for asphalt roofing materials. This isn’t some mild story about a mere material shortage.

    If you can’t install the roof, the work underneath can’t move forward even a single step. That’s obvious, right? There’s no way that’s acceptable as professional work—stuffing in insulation, attaching gypsum board, and pushing ahead with interior carpentry right under the open sky, exposed to the elements. If you force it through, you’ll end up handing the client a defective home.

    Without the roofing underlayment, the structural framework you’ve just erected will just keep getting soaked by the rain and steadily deteriorate. The fact that the most essential waterproofing material has physically vanished means every new construction site has frozen in place.

    https://x.com/PapalotX/status/2042717754076336624

    PM Takaichi doing nothing about Iran has just slammed the brakes on residential construction. FWIW, the Japanese residential construction business is a very large sector whose market was valued at $170+ billion in 2025. I.e., one of those “you just eff’d with the wrong guy…” situations.

    I wonder how long she can survive before the party defenestrates her?
    1. hk April 11, 2026 at 2:45 am

       Not to mention the construction industry is traditionally linked to politics (and organized crime) through very shady ways (I guess construction is linked to politics in some shady manner everywhere, but my sense is that Japan is more extreme.) The payback’s gotta be pretty harsh.
       1. Acacia April 11, 2026 at 3:51 am

          Yes, I believe there has been a basis in fact for all of those yakuza films in which Sugawara Bunta does years behind bars to take the fall for the boss, and then when he gets out of jail it turns out that all of his former gang brothers have become “respectable” real estate agents. ;)
    2. The Rev Kev April 11, 2026 at 4:29 am

       They may have to switch to metal roofs to restart their housing industry. It works for us.

       https://colorbond.com/products/roofing
       1. Acacia April 11, 2026 at 7:34 am

          Had to click through, as I thought you meant this type: 😁

          https://www.metalroofingonline.com.au/products/corrugated-colorbond-roofing-sheets/

          BTW, there is actually a serious discussion of this as a “national style” in Australia, e.g., BANHAM, R. (1988), “Australia: verso un’architettura modestamente ‘galvo’ “
67. Anthony Martin April 11, 2026 at 4:39 pm

    1)Given that Trump was stupid enough to listen to Netanyahu in the first place and to deliberately close down the Straits of Hormuz , why would anyone think that his problem solving abilities have improved?
    2) Given the fact that the US is incapable of negotiationg in good faith, why would anyone believe the honorable intentions of Witkoff & Kushner. As far as Vance goes, will this good Catholic Christian offer apologies for Hegseth’s doctrine of targeting schools and incinerating children? Are Russia, China, NK, India, & Pakistan picking up the drift?
    3) In all probability, if Trump has initiated a ‘pause’ it is a precursor to a sneak attack of some sorts. However, two can play the same game, and Iran can be manuevering Trump into overloading his feeble brain to the point of disintegration.
    4) It is surprising that Trump has not announced the invasion and conquest of Oman in order to gain a position to split the toll both in the Straits.
    5) BS negotiation aside, tomorrow, Amanda Ungaro, Melania’s ex BFF will be givng an interview. What beans will be spilt?

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